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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jun 12, 2013 23:41:16 GMT -8
Hell, if STRAW! still don't make it, I think the gals in MAG are nice enough to let them take their place Assuming they DO make it that is.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 13, 2013 0:01:10 GMT -8
I'd say the Magic Missiles are pretty safe at this point. The Guests need either STRAW! or TME to utterly collapse in the last two games, and WCC needs all the other teams to spontaneously combust so... yeah. You're good, Count. Although if MM is willing to trade their spot for STRAW! in the event that the Guests pull off a miracle, that would certainly save me from a moral quandary.
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Post by Bob on Jun 13, 2013 8:12:57 GMT -8
Okay, thanks for responding so quickly everybody! So I have everybody on board with a re-sim (or at least not caring one way or the other), so I've decided to use the re-sim results. There is only ONE game that has changed and it is the one I kinda thought might change, just because the score was already close. Sorry Fleck, but the Guest Who have now LOST to Straw! STILL a close game, but now instead of a 9-8 victory for GW, it's a 9-10 victory for S! I think the best thing about this resim will be the accurate point differentials for the case of seeding ties. Some teams really racked up the points against a Gau or Cait Sith in goal, so those have been fixed. Just for record, I'll post up all the previous scores here, along with their current. You can find all the new game results in the League folder under "Resim." forum.goatpen.org/Blitzball/League01/Resims/Round 3: WCC vs SM7--WAS 0-4, NOW 0-2 S vs TME--WAS 2-5, NOW 4-5 Round 4: S vs WCC--WAS 1-0, NOW 3-1 Round 5: GW vs S--WAS 9-8, NOW 9-10 (change in victor) GB vs WCC--WAS 4-1, NOW 5-0 Round 6: WCC vs NS--WAS 0-10, NOW 1-5 Round 7: MAG vs WCC--WAS 2-0, NOW 2-1 Ah, loves me some Grizzlies. Though only one game's victor changed (sorry GW), all games except one worked out better for S and WCC's point differentials. That game against the Grizzlies. Went from 4-1 to 5-0. In games like that one, you can tell that Cait Sith had very little impact on the game and it was all basically random chance. The GW vs S game was similar, only those two teams are pretty evenly matched. Games where the point differentials changed significantly (like WCC vs NS) you can see that the flawed player had a significant effect, but what I'M taking away from this is that one player, unless in goal, doesn't make a huge difference. As long as you have SOMEBODY to defend and SOMEBODY to shoot, then you'll do okay. Good lesson to learn as we use this Stamina system...I guess. The good thing about this is that Straw! is now officially a decent team. The sad part is that now GW has no hope for the tournament, so we know exactly who'll be in it at this point. We just don't know the seeding order yet.
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Jun 13, 2013 8:47:34 GMT -8
Cool; good stuff.
Bob especially, but everyone else, too: Sorry for my bullshit, thanks for putting up with me and keeping me around.
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Post by Bob on Jun 13, 2013 9:39:54 GMT -8
Psh, like we'd let you go anywhere It's all good. Feedback is a good thing, so I appreciate that. I'll definitely have an improved program for the next league, so it helps to hear all of the issues so I can correct them. I'm loving the blitz tournament, and that's not because of the program, it's because of everybody contributing to it. EDIT: And when you get a chance, Fleck, we need a Stamina Report. I know they take some time, but just reminding you. I'm too lazy to track my own stamina, so I can't design my next line-up until I get it. Bob = lazy.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 13, 2013 10:03:41 GMT -8
Eh. The Guests have been out of it for awhile anyway. I've basically had them on cruise control most of the season, and the majority of my attention has been focused on Loveless and keeping track of team stamina.
Speaking of which, I meant to do the stamina report last night, but was struck with a crippling headache and instead did absolutely nothing except hide from light and loud sounds. I seem to be better today, so I'll do it in a few hours. Right now, I've got to go run around town (including a trip to the DMV.... yay....) so it'll be up later this afternoon.
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Post by Bob on Jun 13, 2013 10:13:00 GMT -8
Woo DMV! YEAH DMV! Goooooo DMV!
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Jun 13, 2013 10:51:37 GMT -8
DMV is my second favorite thing, right behind having all of my nails peeled off of my fingers and toes.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 13, 2013 13:31:27 GMT -8
Team Stamina Week 7
Grizzly Bears
Forward: Zangan - 7 Forward: Orlandu - 5 Center: Sazh - 2 Defender: Auron - 6 Defender: Duncan- 8 Goalie: Tellah - 6 BENCH: Galuf - 10 BENCH: Dr. Kadowaki -10
Thieves 'n Mercs
Forward: Gafgarion -4 Forward: Yuffie - 3 Center: Paine - 2 Defender: Lani - 6 Defender: Ba'Gamnan- 8 Goalie: Rikku - 9 BENCH: Locke - 10 BENCH: Amarant - 10
The Mad Experiments - NOTICE: MIKOTO MUST REST
Forward: Julius -7 Forward: Odine -5 Center: Hojo - 8 Defender: No. 288 -3 Defender: Deling -5 Goalie: Mikoto -0 BENCH: Xande's Clone -10 BENCH: Kuja -10
The Nightshades - NOTICE: RENO + XU MUST MOVE
Forward: Reno -1 Forward: Xu -2 Center: Illua -5 Defender: Chime -7 Defender: Mira -8 Goalie: Frimelda - 1 BENCH: Blank -10 BENCH: Cissnei -10
Sublimely Magnificent 7 - NOTICE: SEIFER MUST REST
Forward: Laguna -7 Forward: Seifer -0 Center: Edge -6 Defender: Cid Highwind -8 Defender: Balthier -6 Goalie: Edgar -3 BENCH: Snow -10 BENCH: Jecht -10
The Magic Missiles - NOTICE: RINOA MUST MOVE
Forward: Selphie -7 Forward: Rinoa -1 Center: Garnet -6 Defender: Yuna -6 Defender: Aeris -8 Goalie: Lulu -3 BENCH: Rydia -10 BENCH: Vanille -10
Loveless - NOTICE: GENESIS MUST MOVE
Forward: Lightning -7 Forward: Terra -4 Center: Genesis -1 Defender: Sabin -4 Defender: Cecil -4 Goalie: Vivi -9 BENCH: Hope -10 BENCH: Marche -10
Guests Who - NOTICE: LARSA MUST MOVE
Forward: Larsa -1 Forward: Lebreau -7 Center: Minwu -2 Defender: Leo -6 Defender: Alma -4 Goalie: Olan -8 BENCH: Edea -10 BENCH: FuSoYa -10
STRAW!- NOTICE: FANG MUST MOVE
Forward: Bikke -7 Forward: Fang -1 Center: Freya -2 Defender: Steiner -5 Defender: Beatrix -5 Goalie: Gau -9 BENCH: Celes -10 BENCH: Barbariccia -10
World Class Creatures - NOTICE: CHUPON + CAIT SITH MUST MOVE
Forward: Quina -4 Forward: Chupon -1 Center: Umaro -6 Defender: Cait-Sith -1 Defender: Boko -8 Goalie: Ultros -9 BENCH: Red Xiii -10 BENCH: Stiltzkin -10
Commentary:
And now we're nearing the end of our first season. As previously mentioned, thanks to abysmal performances from The Guests Who and WCC, the top eight teams are already guaranteed playoff berths (you're welcome), so it would be a good idea to keep that in mind as you go into the last two games of the season.
Since we don't have any bye rounds in this playoffs, everyone participating will be playing the whole three rounds (if they win all their games). So, in case it isn't already obvious, you need to rest both forwards on the 9th game of the season if you want to keep them in that position for the whole playoffs. Granted, only two teams will actually play all three games, but you don't want to plan for failure, do you? OF COURSE NOT! Also, defenders and centers can rest next game or the 9th game and be assured of keeping their positions all the way through. Also, if you have one of the teams that cycles through a lot of different goalies instead of having one designated goalie, you might want to keep track of that as well, just to make sure you don't screw yourself later on.
So really the question at this point, since the playoffs are decided, is this: is it better to rest up for the playoffs and have your best players on the field as much as possible, or is it better to fight it out to the end and hopefully secure a better playoff berth? I'm interested in seeing what people do in the last two games of the season.
EDIT: Oh, also, we need tiebreakers to determine seeds as well. Right now, Thieves, Loveless, and Magic Missiles are all even with 11 points each. Granted, that's unlikely to still be true at the end of the 9th round, but in case it is, we need a tiebreaker to determine who faces who, and I still advocate Goal Differential (Goals For - Goals Against).
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Post by Bob on Jun 13, 2013 13:54:34 GMT -8
Thanks for the playoff update. I, for one, plan to go for the league title. I think the tournament is the big deal, but just to say that you held the league victory is a victory in itself. Since the Grizzlies have a damn good chance at it, I've gotta keep trying for it. But lately, I've been doing fairly well at balancing my players, at least on GB. It helps that defenders can easily swap in for goalie, though I'm hoping in later versions to limit that. My hope is to come up with some abilities that make swapping positions a bit more awkward. More on that as it develops, probably end of the tournament, so a couple weeks out.
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Post by Bob on Jun 15, 2013 12:43:16 GMT -8
I am ready to sim a match as soon as I get some PMs. I've got Fleck and Wyvern (and me), so I need Juice and Count. Send 'em in and I'll sim Round 8.
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jun 16, 2013 7:42:15 GMT -8
Sorry for the lateness! I'll send you my formations in a moment
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Post by Bob on Jun 16, 2013 8:16:17 GMT -8
No prob. You and Juice gave me your line-ups, so now the matches are simmed!
GB vs SM7 was an interesting match. Those teams both shoot. A lot. Like, you don't understand until you read it. It's like, "I touched the ball Imma shoot it!"
ONE ROUND LEFT, Y'ALL! GO FOR THE GOLD!
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Post by Fleck on Jun 16, 2013 21:26:30 GMT -8
*sigh*
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Post by Fleck on Jun 16, 2013 21:42:14 GMT -8
Team Stamina Week 8
Grizzly Bears - NOTICE: ORLANDU MUST MOVE, SAZH MUST REST
Forward: Zangan - 4 Forward: Orlandu - 2 Center: Sazh - 0 Defender: Auron - 4 Defender: Duncan- 6 Goalie: Galuf - 9 BENCH: Tellah - 10 BENCH: Dr. Kadowaki -10
Thieves 'n Mercs - NOTICE: GAFGARION MUST MOVE
Forward: Gafgarion -1 Forward: Amarant - 7 Center: Ba'Gamnan- 6 Defender: Lani - 4 Defender: Locke - 8 Goalie: Rikku - 8 BENCH: Paine - 10 BENCH: Yuffie - 10
The Mad Experiments - NOTICE: ODINE MUST MOVE, No. 288 MUST REST
Forward: No. 288 -0 Forward: Odine -2 Center: Hojo - 6 Defender: Xande's Clone -8 Defender: Deling -3 Goalie: Julius -6 BENCH: Mikoto -10 BENCH: Kuja -10
The Nightshades - NOTICE: FRIMELDA MUST REST
Forward: Mira -5 Forward: Cissnei -7 Center: Illua -3 Defender: Chime -5 Defender: Blank -8 Goalie: Frimelda - 0 BENCH: Reno -10 BENCH: Xu -10
Sublimely Magnificent 7
Forward: Laguna -4 Forward: Jecht -7 Center: Edge -4 Defender: Cid Highwind -6 Defender: Balthier -4 Goalie: Edgar -2 BENCH: Snow -10 BENCH: Seifer -10
The Magic Missiles
Forward: Selphie -4 Forward: Rydia -7 Center: Garnet -4 Defender: Yuna -4 Defender: Aeris -6 Goalie: Lulu -2 BENCH: Rinoa -10 BENCH: Vanille -10
Loveless - NOTICE: GENESIS MUST REST
Forward: Lightning -4 Forward: Vivi -6 Center: Terra -2 Defender: Hope -8 Defender: Marche -8 Goalie: Genesis -0 BENCH: Sabin -10 BENCH: Cecil -10
Guests Who
Forward: FuSoYa -7 Forward: Edea -7 Center: Lebreau -5 Defender: Leo -4 Defender: Alma -2 Goalie: Olan -7 BENCH: Minwu -10 BENCH: Larsa -10
STRAW!
Forward: Gau -6 Forward: Celes -7 Center: Barbariccia -8 Defender: Steiner -3 Defender: Beatrix -3 Goalie: Bikke -6 BENCH: Fang -10 BENCH: Freya -10
World Class Creatures
Forward: Boko -5 Forward: Red Xiii -7 Center: Stiltzkin -8 Defender: Umaro -4 Defender: Quina -2 Goalie: Ultros -9 BENCH: Chupon -10 BENCH: Cait-Sith -10
Commentary: Don't worry, I wasn't sighing because I had to do the stamina report. I was sighing because damn, Loveless can't do anything with their lives. Meanwhile, Guests Who and WCC are in a heated battle to see who can set the bar for "lowest final point total ever." Meanwhile, The Mad Experiments are having a hell of a last 1/3 of the season and have gone from being on the verge of not making the playoffs to on the verge of Top 5.
Okay, so, with one game left, it becomes pretty easy to predict who is guaranteed what.
Grizzly Bears currently have 13 points and are at the top of the league at the moment. No matter what, they are guaranteed 1st or 2nd seed.
Nightshade can theoretically tie Grizzlies, with a Grizzly loss and Nightshade win, but the Grizzlies would probably win the Goal Differential tie-breaker, unless Nightshade has a crazy score-fest in their last game against SM7. But, unlike the Grizzlies, Nightshade is still in a position to fall and fall HARD, if everything goes wrong, because the middle is still very crowded as of right now. If Nightshade loses to SM7, Thieves beat WCC, and Missiles beat Loveless, Nightshade would drop down all the way to 5th seed: the bottom half of the playoffs. The way WCC and Loveless are playing right now, this is entirely possible. Final seed: between 1st and 5th.
SM7 can't hope to take the top spot, but when it comes to the 2nd seed, the ball is in their court. A win against Nightshade would put them in 2nd place. But SM7 can fall even further than Nightshade, given a Thieves and Missiles win, because a Mad Experiments win would tie with SM7, and SM7's and TME's Goal Differential is close enough for TME to break the tie in their favor. So SM7 could fall all the way to 6th seed, in the worst-case scenario. Final seed: between 2nd and 6th.
Thieves are playing a team that's already out of the playoffs, so there are fewer variables on that front. The best they can hope for is a Nightshade/SM7 tie (preferably a low-scoring tie), and a win against WCC. That would allow them to pass SM7 and tie Nightshades, but the Goal Differential (the GD) favors Nightshade at the moment. So Thieves need to hope for a NS/SM7 tie, and a decisive victory over WCC. Only then can they claim 2nd seed, but it's a bit of longshot. But if WCC pulls off the upset of the century, and both Missiles and TME win their games, then they could fall all the way down to 7th. Final seed: between 2nd and 7th.
The Magic Missiles are in almost the same situation as Thieves, but with even steeper odds. A NS/SM7 tie and a Thieves loss would tie them with NS, but currently NS's GD MASSIVELY favors NS, so it's nearly impossible for Missiles to take second at this point. Also add the fact that Loveless have one of the best defenses in the game (although not the best record), and the best Missiles can realistically hope for is 3rd or 4th. But a TME win and a loss to Loveless would tie the Missiles with Loveless. GD favors Loveless right now, so it could knock Missiles all the way down the 7th. Final seed: between 2nd and 7th.
The Mad Experiments need a long series of miracles to happen in the 9th round, but they are theoretically still in position for a top seed. They can't hope to catch Grizzlies or Nightshade no matter what, but SM7 is still in their sights. A TME victory over The Guests, an SM7 loss, a Thieves loss, and a Magic Missiles loss could tie SM7, and the GD could go either way. So 3rd is not out of the question. But neither is 8th place. Losing to the Guests, with both a Loveless and STRAW! win could take TME all the way to the 8th seed. Final seed: between 3rd and 8th.
Loveless still has reason to hope. Theoretically anyway. But it would take divine intervention to really affect their final placement. If Loveless beats Missiles, Thieves lose, and TME lose, then Loveless, Missiles, and Thieves would be caught in a mosh. I mean a three-way tie. It would all come down to a GD decider then which favors, in order, Thieves, then Loveless, then Missiles. Thieves are well up on both Loveless and Missiles in terms of GD, but with a MASSIVE crushing of Missiles, Loveless could still theoretically take over. Or, if they lose to Missiles and STRAW! wins, then Loveless will be sitting their happy asses in 8th place. Final seed: between 4th and 8th.
Finally STRAW! No matter what, they are doomed to be in the bottom half of the playoff picture. The best they can hope for is a win over the Grizzlies and then a loss from both TME and Loveless, which would put STRAW! in 6th. STRAW! is unable to change their 8th place ranking without a win against Grizzlies, so if they lose, nothing changes with them. Final seed: between 6th and 8th.
And then the Guests and WCC are going to play cards or something and wait for next season.
DISCLAIMER! I haven't actually factored anyone's real Goal Differential yet. I'm just estimating based on everyone's Total Points Scored number. Actual results may very. Check with your doctor if you notice bleeding, cramps, long uncomfortable silences, or excessive amounts of spam in your inbox.
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