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Post by Fleck on Jun 7, 2013 11:57:38 GMT -8
Bob: I'm worried that the stamina system would be easy to break if we started messing with it too much. When I first started with it, I considered bumping the stamina up to 20, maybe having forwards be 5 stamina per game (thus giving them a max of 4 games in a row, instead of 3) and having all other positions be 2x what they currently are. I'd still rather have centers use slightly less stamina than forwards because it does get tricky if all three front players are using up the same amount of stamina. Although it doesn't make sense to have the center use less stamina, it provides more options and helps keep teams from getting choked out and being forced to play bad team formations.
But 20 is probably the highest I'd go. I'm already bad at math and I worry that I screw up some of the numbers when I'm working with single digits. If I have to do stuff like "57 minus 18" eighty times every round, then I'll throw a fit.
Anyway, it's a discussion for later.
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Post by Bob on Jun 7, 2013 14:11:37 GMT -8
Yeah, I don't think we want to go to high numbers for simplicity's sake, but I do think it's a potential flaw to have center stamina so much less. But, then again, the thing I LIKE about it is that center is THE place for a one-forward team, but that also makes it the obvious choice for a one-forward team, which means the opposition can put a good blocker in there and shut said player down. So I like it, even if I don't think it makes a ton of sense. The Stamina is more "forwards take 3 if you don't want your opponent to know EXACTLY where your best shooter is located."
I'd even consider something like 12 though, just because it has a lot of factors (1,2,3,4,6,12). I like that you can get down to 0 that way.
That being said, there is something to be said for the balance in this system. You can make a forward twice and center twice to get 4 games out of a forward. So I'd like to continue the 10 point system and see how it plays out because it might work well BECAUSE of the non-factor kinds of "flaws." So we'll see.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 8, 2013 0:34:29 GMT -8
The thing is, the stamina system is a tricky little bitch, because once you start moving things around, suddenly other parts shift and either stop making sense or stop performing their functions. We COULD bump it up to 12 total stamina, but this has a number of immediate consequences. For one, now forwards get four games in a row without resting. Okay, fine, that's not so bad. But then centers and defenders get six consecutive games. That's... a little much. And goalies get 12, meaning they can go the whole season and most of the playoffs without resting.
But the real problem with tweaking stamina is the rest system. When I was messing around with the stamina system to figure out a way that worked, I didn't look at it from "what numbers make sense and factor down to 0" because that wasn't a priority for me. I was looking at it from a ratio of "how much stamina is expended a game" versus "how much stamina can be gained in a game." At the current system, each team loses 13 stamina every game, between the forwards, center, defenders, and goalie. But they can, theoretically, gain a maximum of 20 stamina by resting two players with zero stamina. So, theoretically, it's possible to play indefinitely, without your team's overall stamina ever running out. So the key becomes efficiency. The extra, dangling 1 stamina left over from a forward playing three consecutive games adds inefficiency, because now resting two forwards only nets you a total of 18 stamina while still losing 13. I actually want that, because I feel that playing everyone down to zero adds too much stability to the system. If we were playing marathon, 50 game seasons, then I'd want something with stability, but since our seasons are so short, I deliberately went for a system that would destabilize itself quicker, over a system that had cleaner numbers.
Because of the inherent inefficiencies in the system, as well as the fact that you'll almost never get the ideal 20+ stamina makes it more challenging and, I think, fun, than a system that has easier math. Upping the stamina to 12 would make better sense, but it would also make it a lot easier to keep your team stable. With 12 stamina, you can run your forwards down to nothing, rest them, and get a perfect 24 stamina back--nearly twice what you lost. It makes it too easy, I think.
And as for the centers being illogical, I haven't thought of a better solution, but I still stand by having them be a "rest" area for forwards.
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jun 8, 2013 3:24:24 GMT -8
I think Bob was actually shooting for changing the numbers around though, not just increasing stamina for stamina's sake. Because of the efficiency of centers, we could jiggle around the numbers to look more like this, so the trade-off for being a centre is more in line with forwards, rather than a happy medium between forwards and defense for what is arguably the most versatile position.
Forward: 4 Center: 3 Defense: 2 Goalie: 1
It gives a bit more variance - forwards still collapse after 3 games, but a center would only last 4 before being completely out, as opposed to 5, like the defenders. It's just easier to make a fairer, tiered system. There's no leftovers here though, unless you swap around your forwards, so maybe 13 would be better?
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Post by Bob on Jun 8, 2013 7:56:53 GMT -8
I will say that I'm of two minds here. Yes, like Count was saying, I was thinking of jumping up all values a bit because 12 has so many factors. It just kinda made sense to work with larger numbers. I see a jump from 2 to 3 (Center to Forward) and see a 150% increase, which is kind of insane given how little difference there is between Centers and Forwards. It makes sense for Goalies to not need much Stamina because they just float there and wiggle an arm every now and again.
THAT BEING SAID, the exact same day I posted the "we should make stamina like 48 or 60!" I drove to work and on the road thought, "But y'know, me, I think I like that it doesn't add up to 10. It means I need to rotate my forwards and centers to achieve an optimal efficiency and that's not something all teams will/should do. Some might want to just keep a benched forward and pull out their forward with 1 left, just to make sure one is always ready."
So I'm thinking we should keep future stamina changes in mind, but I'm not going to put up a big argument for Stamina because I think it's a good system as-is.
I think at this point, my ONLY problem is that I might want a third person on the bench. It'd be easy to play the same Center and Defenders and need to bench 3 people, which kinda sucks. So if centers are going to have the same stamina and essentially need to bench at the same time, then you can't play a certain round, which is never fun. I know it's part of the strategy, but sometimes accidents happen. We're all busy and may not notice that people retire at the same time.
If we did a 20 Stamina system, then we could easily have: 6 for Forwards (3 game max) 5 for Centers (4 game max) 4 for Defenders (5 game max) 2 for Goalies (10 game max)
So, again, I think we should consider a tweak in the future, but right now I think my brain's Strategy Center (it's a location) kinda likes that non-factors means we have the chance to optimize or not. The best part about a game like this is the variation to play in different ways.
So stamina system...Bob likey (yup, I stole that--deal with it).
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Post by Bob on Jun 8, 2013 21:01:20 GMT -8
Matches are simmed.
These were some GOOD matches. Grizzlies vs Guests was a HUGE scoring game. Seriously, so little game, so much ME SHOOT! POINT! ME SHOOT! POINT! And I just want to note something that you all might not realize about the Straw! vs Loveless game. I want you to appreciate how damn last second that final shot was. The time on that last shot isn't even a time, it's 5:0-2. The reason for that is that the shot came probably just before the 5:00 mark. The whole reason that you still see the "Ball released, Blahblah grabs the ball" thing is because of the way the program works. It outputs that automatically after every goal. So...yeah. That was an "at the buzzer" shot. INTENSE.
Reminder: Don't forget to give me your formations, guys! It takes me some time to look up your old formations, so make sure you include a "Grizzly Bears = NORMAL" in your PMs. And so far, Count is totally rocking my mind with his outputs. Takes me no time to input his stuff. He has his characters in order, so I don't even need to read names, just "LF, RD, C, G, BENCH, etc." Good job, Count! A happy Bob you make!
...and if you don't know what I'm talking about, I'm talking about how he's listing his players in the order they're in on my teamdata. For reference:
GB=Grizzly Bears:Tellah|Sazh|Orlandu|Auron|Duncan|Galuf|Zangan|Dr. Kadowaki
TM=Thieves 'n Mercs:Locke|Gafgarion|Paine|Yuffie|Lani|Ba'Gamnan|Amarant|Rikku
LO=Loveless:Genesis|Terra|Lightning|Cecil|Sabin|Vivi|Hope|Marche
GW=Guests Who:Minwu|Edea|Larsa|Leo|Alma|Olan|FuSoYa|Lebreau
SM7=Sublimely Magnificent 7:Balthier|Seifer|Jecht|Edge|Cid Highwind|Edgar|Laguna|Snow
MAG=The Magic Missiles:Garnet|Rinoa|Rydia|Yuna|Aeris|Lulu|Selphie|Vanille
NS=The Nightshades:Illua|Xu|Blank|Mira|Chime|Frimelda|Reno|Cissnei
TME=The Mad Experiments:Kuja|Julius|Xande's Clone|No. 288|Mikoto|Hojo|Odine|Deling
WCC=World Class Creatures:Chupon|Stiltzkin|Umaro|Quina|Red Xiii|Ultros|Boko|Cait-sith
S=STRAW!:Fang|Beatrix|Steiner|Freya|Celes|Bikke|Barbariccia|Gau
My GOODNESS it saves me time. I know, it's a difference of like twenty seconds, but still, it helps. Also: I do make mistakes sometimes and need to restart. It's a good thing I made the input dummy-proof, so when I say "Snow is Right Defense!" and the program doesn't let me put him there (because I already put someone there), I go *facepalm* and redo the input.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 8, 2013 22:10:54 GMT -8
Team Stamina Week 6
Grizzly Bears - NOTICE: DR. K MUST MOVE
Forward: Dr. Kadowaki -1 Forward: Sazh - 4 Center: Orlandu - 8 Defender: Auron - 8 Defender: Galuf - 7 Goalie: Tellah - 7 BENCH: Zangan - 10 BENCH: Duncan- 10
Thieves 'n Mercs - NOTICE: AMARANT MUST REST
Forward: Gafgarion -7 Forward: Paine - 4 Center: Lani - 8 Defender: Yuffie - 6 Defender: Locke - 4 Goalie: Amarant - 0 BENCH: Rikku - 10 BENCH: Ba'Gamnan- 10
The Mad Experiments - NOTICE: MIKOTO MUST MOVE
Forward: Deling -7 Forward: Kuja -4 Center: Odine -8 Defender: Xande's Clone -6 Defender: Mikoto -1 Goalie: No. 288 -5 BENCH: Hojo - 10 BENCH: Julius -10
The Nightshades
Forward: Reno -4 Forward: Illua -7 Center: Frimelda - 2 Defender: Xu -5 Defender: Blank -3 Goalie: Chime -9 BENCH: Mira -10 BENCH: Cissnei -10
Sublimely Magnificent 7 - NOTICE: JECHT MUST MOVE
Forward: Jecht -1 Forward: Seifer -3 Center: Edge -8 Defender: Snow -6 Defender: Balthier -8 Goalie: Edgar -4 BENCH: Laguna -10 BENCH: Cid Highwind -10
The Magic Missiles - NOTICE: VANILLE MUST REST
Forward: Rydia -4 Forward: Rinoa -4 Center: Vanille -0 Defender: Yuna -8 Defender: Garnet -8 Goalie: Lulu -4 BENCH: Aeris -10 BENCH: Selphie -10
Loveless
Forward: Marche -7 Forward: Terra -7 Center: Genesis -3 Defender: Sabin -6 Defender: Cecil -6 Goalie: Hope -1 BENCH: Lightning -10 BENCH: Vivi -10
Guests Who - NOTICE: EDEA MUST MOVE
Forward: Larsa -4 Forward: Edea -1 Center: Minwu -4 Defender: Leo -8 Defender: Alma -6 Goalie: Olan -9 BENCH: Lebreau -10 BENCH: FuSoYa -10
STRAW!- NOTICE: BARBARICCIA MUST MOVE, CELES MUST REST
Forward: Steiner -7 Forward: Beatrix -7 Center: Freya -4 Defender: Fang -4 Defender: Barbariccia -1 Goalie: Celes -0 BENCH: Bikke -10 BENCH: Gau -10
World Class Creatures
Forward: Quina -7 Forward: Red Xiii -4 Center: Umaro -8 Defender: Stiltzkin -4 Defender: Chupon -4 Goalie: Cait-Sith -3 BENCH: Boko -10 BENCH: Ultros -10
Commentary: So... in the course of 3 games, Loveless goes down from #1 in the league and is now struggling just to stay in the top 5. I don't think there's a realistic shot at them being knocked out of the playoffs, but they are definitely going to get a lousy seed if they don't pick it up in the last three games. Oh well. That's what I get for underestimating STRAW! and using this opportunity to give Loveless a rest before their big games against the Grizzlies and Nightshade. Hopefully this setback will pay off in the long run, because wins against Grizzlies and/or Nightshade will put Loveless back in contention again. At least Loveless is playing how I built them to play: low-scoring, high defense. They've only got a total of 9 Goals Against all season, which I think is the league best (correct me if I'm wrong), so I still feel confident in calling them one of the teams to beat this season, despite their disappointing middle-third of the season.
Speaking of disappointing, I REALLY need to pay attention to the Guests. I got lazy and didn't double-check my stats and I put Lebreau in goal. I knew that ONE of my Reserve players had a goalie-quality CA stat, and I chose the wrong one and didn't double check my error. Hence the absolute blowout. I'd say, at this point, the Guests only realistic shot at making the playoffs is to hope that Mad Experiments don't win or tie for the rest of the season, and then the Guests beat them in the final game of the season, which would be just enough to put TME out and the Guests in. Otherwise, I don't feel confident about the Guests chances.
Out of curiosity, I looked online to see how professional sports broadcasters calculate when a team is guaranteed a seed in any given playoffs. Turns out there's a SHITTON of math involved (like, a 10-page PDF file about it), so screw that. If anyone wants to figure all that out, feel free.
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Post by Bob on Jun 8, 2013 23:00:40 GMT -8
Realistically, WCC can't make playoffs at this point (though it's not a guarantee, but a lot of stars need to align) and GW's solution to playoffs is "Jesus." I'd say anybody Loveless and up are set for playoffs, but MAG and down are not guarantees. GW's next game will be a tough one, but the next two games they could potentially be contenders and both will be critical.
At this point, I'd say our teams are in three tiers. The top tier are the top five right now (GB, NS, SM7, TM, and LO), the middle tier are the next two (MAG and S), and then there's the bottom tier (GW and WCC). I don't know where TME would fall, but somewhere in middle or bottom.
While the GBs are the current champs (woo!), I'd say that it's in part due to a weakness of schedule. They've yet to play Loveless and SM7 and previously lost to Nightshades, so they may not be able to take down top teams. They took down TnM, but only before I realized how to play the TnM properly. So I'd say that while they hold the title for now, I'm not very confident in their chances with the rest of this league, nor the tournament.
TnM seem to have played the bulk of their hard games, so I'm hoping they'll take down the rest of their teams, but I fear an upset. I gotta say, I love TnM. They're a fun team to play and they're characteristically the upsetters of the league. Victories against two of the three teams ranked above them and ties to both teams right below them.
I can't wait for the end of this tournament so that we can toss in some level-ups. I'm dying to see how I can change my teams. There are a few people I wouldn't mind completely removing from my team, but we'll have to discuss if that's allowed or not. But I dunno about everybody else, but BOTH of my teams have changed their line-up dramatically. Both teams have new regular goalies and my potential centers are now either goalies or benchwarmers, typically. I'd love to talk strategy because I have some, but gotta wait until the league/tournament ends to start up THAT conversation.
And Fleck: I was REALLY wondering what was happening with GW. Makes sense that Lebreau wasn't a goalie because...damn.
Can't wait to sim the next game. It'll be Wednesday. We've got good games ahead of us! LO vs GB, GB vs SM7, NS vs LO, and SM7 vs NS! These are the four most important games for the league winners! And the rest of the games? Those'll be really important for tournament status! For Round 7, I think all eyes are on GB vs LO. GO GRIZZLIES! ROOOOAR!
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Post by Fleck on Jun 9, 2013 2:06:19 GMT -8
This just in: All members of The Guests Who have converted to Roman Catholicism.
I don't think The Guests are 100% out of it yet. Granted, they probably don't stand a chance against Nightshade, but Magic Missiles and Mad Experiments are theoretically winnable games. And the bottom of the pack is still pretty close. A victory by the Guests and a loss by STRAW! and The Mad Experiments puts the Guests on level with STRAW! and ahead of TME, placing them precariously tied for 7th. So the Guests are still within striking distance of the playoffs, but it's gonna be tough for them.
NO LOVE FOR THE GRIZZLIES! THEY ARE HORNLESS AND SOON TO BE LOVELESS!
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Post by Bob on Jun 9, 2013 7:36:51 GMT -8
Yeah, they could make it. Only shoe-ins are the top tier right now. Even the middle tier is in danger, but the next game could make things much more clear. We shall see.
GRIZZLIES FTW! They're gonna EAT Loveless!
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jun 11, 2013 20:12:04 GMT -8
Last round, I went for an all-in aggressive strategy with SM7 vs TM. Positions were swapped. Defenders were moved into striker positions. CENTER mode was activated. And they got kinda wrecked, especially in the first half. At least a defender scored a goal though! That's something to be happy about at least
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Post by Bob on Jun 11, 2013 23:03:47 GMT -8
Defenders scoring really doesn't happen much. Quite a feat!
Okay, all matches are simmed except SM7 vs S. Juice had an input error, and since I'm posting all anxiously here (it's Wednesday TECHNICALLY!), I've posted everything except that match. I DO have it simmed and will post it if Juice is okay with the temporary positions I've assigned, but I'm giving him a chance to correct that. If he doesn't like that formation, then I'll pull the results and nobody will see them except me...because I'm a peeeeeeker!
If you read through the LO vs GB match, then I hope you, too, are tickled by the fact that the entire second half becomes a faceoff between Sabin and Duncan. lolcity.
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Post by Fleck on Jun 11, 2013 23:51:25 GMT -8
I AM NOT TICKLED IN THE SLIGHTEST!
But I want to take a moment to discuss possible tie-breaker scenarios. Depending on how the SM7 v STRAW! game went, The Guests may or may not have successfully battled their way into being one point away from being tied for second-to-last place. If the Guests do tie it up with STRAW! we'll need to talk about how to resolve that, and I want to have this discussion BEFORE it comes to that, so that no one can accuse me of being biased.
Anyway, I think the only two realistic options are to have a tiebreaker game or to go by goal differential. I know soccer and hockey go by goal differential (the difference between Goals For and Goals Against, the team with the higher difference wins the draw) and I prefer that. I don't like the idea of tiebreaker games, because then we'd have to get into a debate about whether or not it counts against a team's stamina. Even if we exclude stamina from the tiebreaker game, we'd still have to set time aside to allow both sides to choose their lineups. Since we'd be playing for the final spot in the playoffs, that would put the whole playoffs on hold for a while as we sorted out the tiebreaker.
I just think that a tiebreaker game would add complications, delay, and work. Using Goal Differential as the standard would speed things up and simplify things, while also making use of Challonge's handy-dandy "Total Points in Games" feature (although we'd still have to calculate Goals Against and then find the difference).
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jun 12, 2013 7:49:12 GMT -8
I'm personally surprised at the loss TM had at the hands of TME, considering TME had been underperforming this season (as a result of the goalie changes, I gather), yet their weird dynamic managed to win that particular game.
I'm also hoping that SM7 beat S in the next round, purely because then the following match will be between the top two teams in the league, and may very well be the match that decides the overall winner of the league. If SM7 lose this one, second place is the best hope they have.
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Post by Bob on Jun 12, 2013 9:04:10 GMT -8
I was surprised by TM vs TME as well. It seems they pretty effectively shut down Gafgarion, which is a good way to go against TM. They really have only one solid point-man, and that's Gaf. Paine does okay, but Gaf's where it's at. But yes, very shocked. I thought TM would have the last three games of the season wrapped up, but I think they're more a fluke team that isn't really top tier material, they just look good on paper because they're quite the upset team. I'm looking forward to the GB vs SM7 showdown, too. I THINK SM7 will take down S, leaving a big battle in Round 8. I'm very intrigued by this potential showdown. What's funny is that Loveless is not terribly high ranked, but I think they're always one of the most feared teams in the league. Their defense is incredible and they manage to squeeze off a good shot or two to clean it up. It's scary, man! That game was intense! Of course, the best match of Round 7 goes to TM vs TME, still. I like to read my teams' matches to see what needs to be worked on and that was an intense game. I saw TM dominating at first and was like "aww, poor TME. They can get at least ONE point." And they did. And then they immediately tied things up and I went ! And then TM got a point...and TME followed it up IMMEDIATELY. And I was like !! And then Hojo got that last point and I was like The end. *bows*
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