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Post by Bob on Oct 10, 2013 20:35:15 GMT -8
And they're updated! New line-ups by this weekend? Saturday would be nice, that way I can update Saturday night or so.
SPOILERS: Well, glad to see Wyvern's teams are back in this. Unfortunately, that meant my team losing their top spot. Grr, arg. I'm seeing weaknesses in both of my teams and am looking forward to the next level-up to try to fix them, but for now I gotta start lookin' at that tournament coming up. One game left this league!
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Post by Fleck on Oct 10, 2013 23:16:02 GMT -8
Team Stamina League 3 Round 8
Grizzly Bears
Forward: Tellah - 4 Forward: Orlandu - 7 Center: Sazh - 4 Defender: Auron - 4 Defender: Galuf - 8 Goalie: Dr. Kadowaki -3 BENCH: Duncan- 10 BENCH: Zangan - 10
Mercenaries - CRITICAL: RUDE
Forward: Rude - 2 Forward: Gafgarion -7 Center: Elena - 6 Defender: Lani - 3 Defender: Ba'Gamnan- 5 Goalie: Worker 8- 9 BENCH: Tseng - 10 BENCH: Amarant - 10
The Mad Experiments - CRITICAL: MIKOTO, JULIUS
Forward: Odine -7 Forward: Hojo - 7 Center: Deling -5 Defender: Mikoto -2 Defender: Kuja -6 Goalie: Julius - 0 BENCH: The Mask -10 BENCH: No. 288 -10
The Nightshades - CRITICAL: CHIME, BLANK, MIRA
Forward: Reno -4 Forward: Chime -2 Center: Illua -8 Defender: Blank -1 Defender: Mira -2 Goalie: Frimelda - 9 BENCH: Alba -10 BENCH: Cissnei -10
Sublimely Magnificent 7 - CRITICAL: SNOW
Forward: Edge -7 Forward: Laguna -3 Center: Balthier -8 Defender: Snow -2 Defender: Seifer -5 Goalie: Cid Highwind -5 BENCH: Edgar -10 BENCH: Jecht -10
The Magic Missiles - CRITICAL: LULU
Forward: Rinoa -7 Forward: Selphie -4 Center: Vanille -4 Defender: Aeris -6 Defender: Yuna -8 Goalie: Lulu -2 BENCH: Rydia - 10 BENCH: Garnet -10
Loveless
Forward: Hope -4 Forward: Terra -7 Center: Genesis -6 Defender: Sabin -4 Defender: Cecil -4 Goalie: Vivi -6 BENCH: Lightning -10 BENCH: Marche -10
Guests Who - CRITICAL: LEBREAU, OLAN
Forward: Lebreau -1 Forward: Edea -7 Center: Minwu -6 Defender: Alma -8 Defender: FuSoYa -6 Goalie: Olan -2 BENCH: Leo -10 BENCH: Larsa -10
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Oct 11, 2013 4:14:52 GMT -8
Man, Magic Missiles winning really set back SM7 there, both to the lower half. Both had their star player missing so they were on even footing, but no Jecht = no win for SM7
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Post by Bob on Oct 11, 2013 6:01:23 GMT -8
He's the best.
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Oct 11, 2013 13:56:12 GMT -8
So, I'm pretty sure these are the final standings going into round 9. Fleck, care to fact-check me?
Guaranteed Medal
Loveless: 1st-3rd
*****
Chance at Gold
Grizzly Bears and The Mad Experiments: 1st-5th
*****
Chance at Silver
Guest Who: 2nd-6th(T)
Luca Goers: 2nd-8th
*****
Middle of the pack
Sublimely Magnificent 7: 4th(T)-8th
*****
Fight for the Bottom
Mercenaries: 5th-9th
Nightshades: 6th-9th
Magic Missiles: 7th-9th
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Post by Bob on Oct 11, 2013 20:31:10 GMT -8
SM7 can't take third. They have 3 wins, so even winning their next game would put them at only 4 wins, and 3 teams already have more wins than that.
And time for...Bob's Tournament Predictions! Last round's were fairly inaccurate, let's see how wrong I can be this time!
1. Loveless. Undefeated (though 3 ties). I just don't think TME has what it takes to pull 'em down. If they do though, then TME (likely) takes the league. If not, then TME takes 4th.
2. Guest Who. They'll defeat the Aurochs. The Grizzlies MIGHT beat the Goers, but shh, I'm pulling Auron. He needs to rest for the tourney. The Grizzlies have this bad trend of "Pull Auron = Lose." And since this is the Goers, I think they'll capitalize on the Grizzlies' already-weak defense and take 'em down.
3. Grizzly Bears. Because ^
4. The Mad Experiments. Honestly, there are two places for TME: 1st or 4th. That's really it. If they beat Loveless, they'll likely be the only team with 6 wins, so a definite 1st place. There IS the chance that the Grizzlies beat the Goers, and if the Grizzlies beat the Goers AND TME beats Loveless, then the Grizzlies could be the tops, but unlikely. If they lose, then GW will win and pass them and GB will still have a better record. So I say 4th.
5. Mercenaries. Honestly, it's TCTC. Mercs will...probably win? They choked at the end of last round, but they're playing MAG, who unfortunately have a bad record. Still, I'm also predicting an SM7 victory over NS, which would put SM7 here. I'll still go Mercs though because I think NS has a shot at SM7 and will take 'em down for me. Go Mercs! I'd also really like them here because then my two teams would be in different tournament brackets...presumably.
6. Nightshades. I'm predicting a victory over SM7, which will determine if SM7 gets 5th or 7th, really. Go Nightshades!
7. Sublimely Magnificent 7. Because ^ and ^^
8. Magic Missiles. Only way you get higher than 8th is with an SM7 victory. Quite possible, but still, I'm basing the whole bottom 4 predictions all on one game: NS vs SM7.
P.S. I'm ignoring LG and BA since they don't go into the tournament because that's no place for a CPU!
For reference, here's if teams win (Best Case = they win their next game, Worst Case = they lose their next game; Win = 3 pts, Tie = 1 pt)
BEST CASE LO 6-0-3 = 21 GB 6-2-1 = 19 TME 6-3-0 = 18 GW 5-2-2 = 17 LG 5-3-1 = 16 SM7 4-3-2 = 14 MRC 4-4-1 = 13 NS 4-5-0 = 12 MAG 3-5-1 = 10 BA 1-7-1 = 4
WORST CASE LO 5-1-3 = 18 GB 5-3-1 = 16 TME 5-4-0 = 15 GW 4-3-2 = 14 LG 4-4-1 = 13 SM7 3-4-2 = 11 MRC 3-5-1 = 10 NS 3-6-0 = 9 MAG 2-6-1 = 7 BA 0-8-1 = 1
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Oct 11, 2013 21:29:14 GMT -8
! Whoops! Sorry, shall fix.
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Oct 12, 2013 1:07:40 GMT -8
You're predicting a victory for both SM7 and NS, Bob? Choose a side, you filthy flip-flopper!
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Post by Bob on Oct 12, 2013 6:09:30 GMT -8
I was hoping nobody would notice that! I'm basically saying that it'll be close and I'm thinking SM7 will probably taken given their track record, but my gut is telling me an upset is coming, so my predictions are based on an upset. Statistically, it makes no sense, but I just feel like in this last game, NS has something to prove and they're going to win. Also: that means Mercs get fifth, so part of the prediction is just because I hope Mercs get fifth
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Post by Bob on Oct 12, 2013 11:37:40 GMT -8
Aaaaand the league is over! Tournament is here: challonge.com/blitztournament03SPOILERS: ............Hates you, Mercs. I think this is a continuing trend. Mercs choke. And Count was even saying how he pulled his goalie. WTF, Mercs? I know I pulled Gaf, but Tseng has an absurdly high SHT, too! I really don't understand Tseng. His numbers are so much better than Gafgarion's, but Tseng can't make a shot. He has a SHT of 45, but he never takes a shot! Maybe I'll reconsider that "Low" risk... Now, the question is, are the Mercs last, or Magics? A lot of sports say that the tie goes to the one who won when they met, which is MAG, but MRC has a much higher goal differential. Likewise for the Grizzlies. Did they technically take third in the league, or did Goers? That one doesn't matter so much for tournament placement, but just for piece of mind. NS defeated SM7 by a fair margin, but their victory is a bit short-lived now, since Wyvern has to knock himself out of the tournament in the first round. Always a tough thing to do. I COULD play with our seeds, for sake of fun. I could leave Mercs as 8th seed, then swap NS and SM7. That'd put one of each of our teams in both brackets, though it'd technically be a slight cheating of the seeding system. Let me know what you think so I can finalize this. I'm eager to start getting my line-ups together.
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Post by Fleck on Oct 12, 2013 11:45:53 GMT -8
IIIIIIIIII AM THE CHAMPION....... You guys suuuuuck.
AND IIIIIIII'LLLL KEEP KICKING ASSSSSSS...... In the tourney.
While I'm not the first person to get both of my teams in the top three, I am the first to go One and Two in the league. I'll have more comments about my thoughts for this season and what we should do in the fourth season once the tournament is over.
In the meantime, we already agreed that goal differential is the tiebreaker when teams are tied, so the Mercs +3 beats MAG's -7 and GB's +4 beats the Goers +3.
And I'd recommend not playing with the seeds. Since we changed the system so everyone advances to the tourney, seeds are the only thing that affect placement anymore.
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Post by Bob on Oct 12, 2013 12:56:48 GMT -8
*cries* Dammit, I agree, but that means my teams are in the same bracket. But hell, Mercs are gonna lose anyway. Stupid Mercs are crap this league. Hoping I can fix things, but we'll see.
Okay, then I'll just say the tournament is set. Start prepping those line-ups. I'm thinking with tournaments, when I get line-ups, I'll sim the game as soon as I can. Tournaments should flow quickly.
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Post by Bob on Oct 12, 2013 22:01:35 GMT -8
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLY expletive. HUGE problem, guys. This affects you most, Count. I'm really pissed that it took me until Round 9 to see this error. I BLAME YOU ALL FOR NOT READING YOUR GAMES! ......I KNOW THIS IS MY FAULT BUT I'M SHIFTING THE BLAME SO I DON'T FEEL SO BAD! But yes, big sorries go out to everybody, mostly Count. Here's the thing. I don't read your games, just my own. Selfish. Anyway, I noticed this in the MAG vs MRC game: Rinoa's ball at (7,2). Shot Bonus: 27 1 on defense. Elena tackles hard! Rinoa shoots! Shot Power: 30...27...24...21 I know from past experience that Rinoa does NOT have a SHT of 3. So I checked my code. Sure enough, my program is RECORDING the Shot Bonus, but not using it. Ever. What happened was that in cleaning up my code with the latest version change, I modified the way bonuses work to accommodate the whole "Type" thing. In doing so, I must've forgotten to put back in the +shtbonus part of the code. And so, this is how we went an entire league without a Shot Bonus. It is also why the Magic Missiles did so damn terribly. Haven't had a tragedy this big since Straw! in League #1. Granted, this affected all teams "equally," it's just that I know MAG is completely based around this bonus, but they had no such bonus. So, this fix will be made for the tournament. Plus, in talking to Fleck on AIM, we're thinking we'll let League #3 stand, but call League #4 "The Redo Season." I won't make any other program modifications, we'll just put back in the Shot Bonus and level up our guys. That's it. Save crazy ideas for League #5. Again, sorry for the fuck-up. I'm upset that I didn't catch this WAY sooner. It will be fixed in the tourney. And now, MAG is officially the scariest wild-card out there! I am rooting for them to win, even above my own teams. Go MAG! UNDERDOOOOOOOOOOG! EDIT: Umm, beware the MAG, guys. To test my shtbonus, I re-simmed Game 9: MAG vs MRC. Look at this output, showing things working correctly now: Rinoa's ball at (4,3). Shot Bonus: 21 1 on defense. Elena tackles hard! Rinoa* shoots! Shot Power: 97...87...78...70...63...56...50 Worker 8's CA: 15 Worker 8 can't catch it! Goal! And then, of course, the last line of output: And with a final score of 9 to 2, the The Magic Missiles win! Yyyyyeah. MAG is a good team. Beware them, guys. They WORK now. Dum dum dum! ...what a difference nine characters can make. "+shtbonus" Double Edit: I uploaded the new sim match so that Count can see how his team REALLY works....also so the rest of us can "eep!" at his team. It is here: forum.goatpen.org/Blitzball/League03/Round%209/MAG%20vs%20MRC%20What%20Should%20Have%20Been.html
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Post by Fleck on Oct 13, 2013 0:29:07 GMT -8
Team Stamina League 3 Round 9
Grizzly Bears - CRITICAL: TELLAH, DR. K
Forward: Tellah - 1 Forward: Zangan - 7 Center: Orlandu - 5 Defender: Duncan- 8 Defender: Galuf - 6 Goalie: Dr. Kadowaki -2 BENCH: Auron - 10 BENCH: Sazh - 10
Mercenaries - CRITICAL: LANI
Forward: Tseng - 7 Forward: Lani - 0 Center: Ba'Gamnan- 3 Defender: Elena - 4 Defender: Amarant - 8 Goalie: Worker 8- 8 BENCH: Gafgarion -10 BENCH: Rude - 10
The Mad Experiments - CRITICAL: MIKOTO
Forward: Odine -4 Forward: Hojo - 4 Center: Mikoto -0 Defender: Deling -3 Defender: Kuja -4 Goalie: No. 288 -9 BENCH: The Mask -10 BENCH: Julius - 10
The Nightshades - CRITICAL: RENO, MIRA
Forward: Reno -1 Forward: Illua -5 Center: Alba -8 Defender: Cissnei -8 Defender: Mira -0 Goalie: Frimelda - 8 BENCH: Chime -10 BENCH: Blank -10
Sublimely Magnificent 7 - CRITICAL: SEIFER
Forward: Jecht -7 Forward: Seifer -2 Center: Balthier -6 Defender: Edge -5 Defender: Cid Highwind -3 Goalie: Edgar -10 BENCH: Snow -10 BENCH: Laguna -10
The Magic Missiles
Forward: Rinoa -4 Forward: Rydia - 7 Center: Garnet -8 Defender: Aeris -4 Defender: Yuna -6 Goalie: Vanille -3 BENCH: Selphie -10 BENCH: Lulu -10
Loveless - CRITICAL: CECIL
Forward: Lightning -7 Forward: Terra -4 Center: Genesis -4 Defender: Marche -8 Defender: Cecil -2 Goalie: Vivi -5 BENCH: Sabin -10 BENCH: Hope -10
Guests Who
Forward: Larsa -7 Forward: Edea -4 Center: Minwu -4 Defender: Alma -6 Defender: Leo -8 Goalie: FuSoYa -5 BENCH: Lebreau -10 BENCH: Olan -10
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Oct 13, 2013 5:33:05 GMT -8
Well that explains a lot Bob! XD Tbh I only really skim the matches myself, even my own, so I don't pick up on a lot of the subtle things, and I just figured that Magic Missiles were under-performing because of their lower SHT stats compared to other teams, and that they didn't have enough ball control to make up for it with the shot bonus.
Now I see that this was not the case. Holy balls. Glad to see they're working as intended though, and even better than expected!
But while Rinoa having a shot power of 97 after a passing spree is scary (and Rydia's base SHT value's even higher), this match wasn't a huge amount different to the previous one, which they also won. Also, beware Tseng:
Tseng's ball at (-2,3). Shot Bonus: 3 Tseng* shoots! Shot Power: 84...75...67...60...54...48...43...38...34 Vanille's CA: 23 Vanille can't catch it! Goal!
84 with a shot bonus of 3. Mother of god!
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