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Post by countlieberkuhn on Oct 16, 2011 14:26:44 GMT -8
Whelp, good on Vincent for hanging on. He's kinda forced himself into an alliance with Cybil and Douglas now, and he's gonna have to stay in their good books. With Eileen and Maria gone, poor James is kinda on his own though. They'll all have to group together and hope that the merge comes soon, or things could get messy. They should focus on playing to eachother's strengths, and trying to win over Dahlia and Claudia when the merge comes.
As for the water tower, it's getting rather crowded in there. Walter, Kaufmann, Eileen and Maria all knocking around. How's that going to work, a series of elimination duels?
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Post by Fleck on Oct 16, 2011 15:27:02 GMT -8
You will see!
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Post by Bob on Jan 7, 2012 23:22:41 GMT -8
BACK TO THIS THREAD!
SPOILERS FOR THE LATEST EPISODE UP IN HERE! LATEST = PENULTIMATE! EPISODE 13, I THINK! DON'T READ ME YET IF YOU HAVEN'T READ THE EPISODE! I'M MAKING PICKS FOR WHO'LL TAKE THE WIN!
First off, Harry and Douglas are DUMB. Hell, everybody except James and Mary are dumb, but mostly Harry and Douglas for not noticing their GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY. Everybody was like "get rid of Mary blah blah blah." They figured out that James has a killer chance to win, but failed to realize that keeping Mary is friggin brilliant. She'll get James's vote, but probably not anybody else. MAYBE Maria would cave, and if Harry isn't there, then Heather might, but that's two. You're a guaranteed loss with only two votes. Mary in the F3 is almost a guaranteed win for...whoever else is in there.
....But that being said, Henry wasn't a terrible choice. He's kind of the "other James," that nobody really dislikes. He needed to go. At this point, Alex can probably be left alone because he's shooting himself in the foot with his belly-aching. At this point, Harry and Douglas need to keep Alex and Mary around to waste votes. It means one of them has to go, but screw it, keep around the dead weight! Besides, as long as they don't directly turn on each other, then the other will be a guaranteed vote.
I won't plan out EVERY scenario, but here are my thoughts:
Vincent, Heather, Claudia, Maria, Cybil, Henry are known jurors.
JAMES/ALEX/DOUGLAS OR HARRY Jurors: Vincent, Heather, Claudia, Maria, Cybil, Henry, Mary, Douglas/Harry James Votes: Maria, Mary, Vincent, Claudia Alex Votes: Henry, Cybil Douglas/Harry Votes: Douglas/Harry, Heather
Even if Cybil swaps, James has this in the bag. Hence, James has gotta go (unless you're James or Mary!). I am failing to see how a "James in the finale" situation WON'T lead to his victory. Even if Mary is with him, she won't suck up any votes. I don't think Mary will get a single vote unless James is on the panel. So....
MARY/ALEX/DOUGLAS OR HENRY Jurors: Vincent, Heather, Claudia, Maria, Cybil, Henry, James, Douglas/Harry Mary Votes: James, Maria (because I don't think she'd vote for the others), Vincent Alex Votes: Henry, Cybil, Claudia Douglas/Harry Votes: Heather, Douglas/James
Some of those I think are iffy, but I think Vincent will likely be the deciding vote in this case. Will he swap to Alex? They don't really have beefs, but I don't see Vincent liking Douglas/Harry (more Douglas, but still...).
DOUGLAS/HARRY/ALEX Jurors: Vincent, Heather, Claudia, Maria, Cybil, Henry, James, Mary Alex Votes: Henry, Vincent, Maria Douglas Votes: Cybil, Claudia, James Harry Votes: Heather, Mary
I'd say Alex will take it since Cybil might swap, but who knows. But I think the best bet any of the remaining survivors have is to probably get their teammates eliminated...and James. James will so take this in my all-too-flawed opinion.
Still, it'll be close and depend heavily on people like Vincent and Claudia who really don't have strong pull TOWARD people, more pull AWAY from people, which in most scenarios means two possible people to vote for.
I'd put best odds on James right now, then Alex, then Douglas, then Harry, then Mary.
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Post by Fleck on Jan 7, 2012 23:44:44 GMT -8
I see some minor flaws here, but since you put so much effort into it, I haven't the heart to point them out . You are also on the right track with some of your scenarios though. But what's right and what's wrong? FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON SURVIVOR!
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jan 8, 2012 23:40:06 GMT -8
I'm not thinking too much about the Jury right now, as I want to see who gets to the final 3 first. Of course, if the final immunity challenge happens in part 3 of the next episode, I won't have time to comment and may as well read what happens With Bob's choices, I think mostly you're right, except with regards to Vincent and possibly Claudia. As you said yourself, they have no personal relationships with any of the remaining survivors. Claudia has only ever been truly allied to Dahlia, and Vincent has never had any alliance to speak of. Vincent likes people who stir things up, which points to Mary - she'll get his vote if she's in the final 3. Alex is on the other side of the same coin - he tends to stir things up because of his temper, and usually causes tension on a reactionary basis, and is never the cause himself. I don't think Vincent would vote for Alex though, because he's a guy who wants to play morally, and gets angry when things don't go his way. Plus, despite his temper, Alex has had some of the best sportsmanship of everyone, and I don't think Vincent would actually regard that as a virtue. However, this only matters in the Douglas/Harry/Alex scenario. Reading this and the possibility of James agreeing to go out has made me think about what you said about Survivor having to change the rules about leaving: Leaving right before a key vote in which the votes are all but assured could completely rile things up - did somebody do this as a sacrificial lamb, knowing that they couldn't win on the Jury, but knew that if they had stayed their ally would have been voted out, on the basis that they probably would win over the Jury? If Mary's plan is to be the sacrificial lamb at the end like Harry and Douglas suspected, then that is a brilliant plan though. However, only if that move is legal. It's fairly obvious that James has the Jury in his pocket right now, especially if Mary goes out with him. Of course, Mary going with him into the final 3 is better as it increases their chances overall, but if only James makes it, it may not alter the vote that much. I honestly think that even if Alex wins immunity in the next 2 games, if James is also in the final 3 then James will beat Alex. Maria and potentially Mary will vote for James, guaranteed. Next, you have to count who Alex has pissed off. Cybil won't vote for him - he saw to her going out twice. Claudia won't vote for him - he has been her enemy throughout the whole game. Vincent probably won't vote for him as he's not playing a very strategic game. If Douglas goes out before the final 3 (unlikely), Alex's heavy-handed attempts to persuade Douglas probably lost him his vote. And even with that, I can see Alex's speech being quite arrogant and aggressive, which might not win him any extra favour. Alex's only chance to win the game, in my eyes, is to win immunity twice in a row, and vote out Mary and James with Douglas & Harry, and even then it'll be a close call. Douglas and Harry are in the same kinda spot in the game. Both are well-liked and have played an honest game, and if he only takes one of them with him, say Douglas, then all the votes that Harry would have gotten will be channelled to Douglas. If he has both with him, the Jury's votes might be divided between them enough for the remaining Alex votes to be enough. It's worth noting that the last 3 challenges have suited James' talent, and is a noticeable trend. Memory has been important in all 3, and I think that if James didn't have an injured leg he would have beaten Alex in the latest challenge. And who knows - maybe James is capable of feats of great concentration. From the 2 survivor seasons I've watched, the last challenge has been nothing BUT concentration, ultimately. Concentration and a little balance. I think James has an intense amount of focus in his mind if he's applied to the right things, and if Mary tells him to win and the challenge is concentration-based, he will win.
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Post by Fleck on Jan 9, 2012 0:10:06 GMT -8
Count raises some good points. You're spot on in some areas (I won't specify which though), but both of you are missing something crucial in your jury assessment and how you're planning out votes (and I won't say what). This is a lot of fun to watch, and I get the feeling that there's going to be some debate stirred no matter what I do. I don't know if I mentioned this on the forums or just to Bob, but I'm planning on opening up the floor to answer any questions regarding SSH after the series is over. I'm sure I, like Lucy, have got some 'splaining to do . Count: The survivor rule change only factors in quitting. I don't think it's a spoiler to mention the rule itself, so here goes. The new rule states that people who quit the game aren't allowed to serve on the jury. If you quit, the jury goes shorthanded. They decided it wasn't right to allow a quitter to have a hand in determining a winner of the game. And in a way, they're right. But anyway, the new Survivor rule plays no factor in SSH.
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Jan 9, 2012 1:36:00 GMT -8
Bob, we're missing something crucial between us! THINK! What have we missed!? Edit: If it went to a surprise final 2, then things could get REALLY screwy. But with one episode left, I don't see three eliminations happening, though it's not TOTALLY out of the question.
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Post by Fleck on Jan 9, 2012 10:12:59 GMT -8
*Whistles nonchalantly*
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Post by Bob on Jan 9, 2012 18:03:52 GMT -8
THE BEES! Everybody knows the BEES vote for the winner!
I think it's just a few jurors who might swap a few votes that is off. There are some people like Cybil and Maria who might swap votes, but even some people like Vincent and Claudia can be big wild cards. I'm assuming things like "Claudia doesn't like Harry or Alex," but she might not mind some as much as others and might still vote for them. Cybil will likely stay with the Douglas/Harry vote, but I think she respects Alex more than those two, so she's a wild card. Vincent seems to just want to vote with whoever does crazy stuff and while I think he wouldn't vote Douglas, I don't think he had any major qualms with others.
Anywho, I was just giving my thoughts. As always, if I knew what happened, it'd ruin the surprise, so I'm good with having flawed guesses!
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