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Post by Bob on Sept 10, 2011 11:54:10 GMT -8
Episode 5 Results (SPOILERS, of course):
Alchemilla:
Favorites: Same as before. Triple H and Dahlia (and Angela, but...). Something about Dahlia's ability to survive is just great. It's almost funny how she staved off immunity YET AGAIN, despite Heather's BRILLIANT plan. And I mean that seriously. Heather's plan was brilliant to save Alex+Triple H (or Mary, as it would've been). Problem is, now Alex is crying. He's always crying. What a crybaby. Cry cry cry.
Strong Players: Dahlia, Alex, Harry, Heather. The strength of Alchemilla has only grown more with Angela's elimination. Brookhaven is looking a bit screwed now, though after that assembly (and Henry's new knowledge of family members), Alchemilla might be weakened by some discontinuity in the team.
Targets: VERY hard to say now. Dahlia is still very yes, but what happens next will be interesting. Alex + 3H might become divided, so "Swing Vote Mary" will be very strong, and I think Dahlia will see this very quickly. If Dahlia converts Mary, then Alex+3H are in a LOT of trouble, potentially.
Next Out: HMMM! Well, I think Alchemilla will win again next round based on team strength, but if it comes to it, then I'll say....ALEX! Dahlia might dictate things now, despite losing Angela, and she'll probably see two things: 1. Alex will cripple their strength and 2. If she can get rid of him AND convert Mary, then she can potentially knock out some of the strongest people in the game, leaving an already-divided Brookhaven in the merge. If Dahlia and Claudia are the sole-survivors from Alchemilla by the merge (unlikely, but the closer to it the better), then they're in a hell of a good position. Brookhaven will likely fight themselves at the merge. Dahlia knows that now.
Brookhaven:
Favorites: Douglas, Vincent, James, Maria. Yeah, Maria stepped up in there. I like her. She's crafty. I also kiiiiinda like Eileen, but she's been in the background a lot, so I'm still not sure. She DID get Walter out though, so maybe she's smarter than she seems (but I doubt it).
Strong Players: Douglas, Cybil, Vincent. Nothing new, really.
Targets: Cybil, Maria, Vincent. Cybil might get lucky though. With Kaufmann out, Cybil might start backgrounding herself (and if she plays it smart, she'll do that). There's no longer an OMG FEUD involving her though, so she might be safe now as a purely helpful team member. Get low, Cybil! Be unseen! But also hide Douglas! Some people might not like him now, though I think he's still okay for now. He's still more useful than most of the girls on the team.
Next Out: Though not a target, I think Elle or Eileen might be in trouble. Kaufmann was a large target that was moved out of the way now, hiding all those tiny targets that nobody really considered. Without a Cybil vs Kaufmann rivalry going on, they might pull the team back together and realize that they're carrying dead weight. So I'll put my money on Elle (but not much money).
Author Comments: Screw you and your "things didn't go how I want oh woe is my errorz!" That episode was pimped out! I loved the double-elimination and the double-immunity! I didn't love the challenge, but did at the same time. I liked the general knock-out style, but I was hoping for a bit more SH challenge-ness to it. Not that this was bad, nor non-SH, I just always like the "Oh yeah, I forgot about that from Silent Hill _______!" Anyway, the twists on both sides were great. Kaufmann getting the backfire was kind of awesome, and Heather's little necklace trade blew my pants off. I love that woman! So sneaky, even if it might cause problems between A3H. Followed by Dahlia's jedi mind tricks on that weak-minded fool, Angela, was like "AHHH, I KNOW WHAT'LL HAPPEN NOW BUT THIS IS GREAT." I'm totally looking forward to some hospital hauntings, too! HELLLLLLLS YES! That was the best part of SH4. Also looking forward to more people in the Water Prison. While it might be good to have two people in there that aren't Walter (for dialogue's sake), Angela will probably not be very conversational, either. But oh well, Water Prison will be neat next episode!
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Post by Fleck on Sept 10, 2011 12:32:45 GMT -8
But it could have been MORE awesome... Vincent had a really good plan in place. But I guess, ultimately, it's better that his plan failed, because now there's more uncertainty. If Vincent was always kicking ass and things were always going his way, then there'd be less drama. Stupid Douglas, being all reasonable and rational. I honestly expected Cybil to put her foot down and say, "Damn it, we're voting Maria shut up," but when Douglas turned, then that plan instantly died. I really should have seen that coming (and so should Vincent), which is mostly what I'm upset about. I hate when I don't see things until it's too late. Anyway, I'm really glad you liked it. I was in kind of a "I suck and I'm stupid " phase for awhile but now I feel better. Episode 6 is in the works! Hold on to your butts!
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Post by Bob on Sept 10, 2011 16:20:22 GMT -8
Yeah, in watching I Love Money, the best part is how plans rarely work. They get this FLAWLESS plan, then find out that some people are just unpredictable and somebody else goes home. ILM is a different format though. People vote to put three people in "the box," then the leader of the opposing team (that won the challenge) sends them home. So there's a LOT of unpredictability there. People volunteering to throw challenges and such if they stick around. Anywho, point is, it's interesting when things that make sense just don't work out. Otherwise the smartest people would always win.
Another thing that happens on ILM that might happen here now is another person rising up to be the new Big Bad or even just a big personality. Now that Kaufmann is gone, it might turn out that Eileen is the new brain on campus and she's going to plot and scheme around. Nobody ever notices the quiet ones, unless their giant heads are lodged in your hotel room and their eyes track your movements. Mwa ha ha ha ha!
Also: Ah ah ah! You didn't say the magic word!
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Post by Fleck on Sept 10, 2011 21:19:19 GMT -8
Clever girl...
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Sept 11, 2011 17:02:59 GMT -8
Good episode! Vincent's in a dodgy position now, although Douglas seems to have had a turnaround. Were it not for his dodgy leg, he'd be a seriously strong contender for the final 3, thanks to his agreeable personality (he even swayed the stubborn Cybil), and general well-roundedness. However, thanks to his lack of injuries and ailments, James now seems to be the best off, being well-rounded in all regards. Furthermore, if Maria and Mary can hang on until the merge with him, he will be in an exceptionally strong position, unless Maria and Mary start getting a little jealous of each-other. Mr. Hand-Plunger is quite the catch after all!
Heather's plan to try and stifle Alex and shove a bit more power in the pocket of her dad was good, but she made an even bigger mistake than Vincent in trusting the immunity with Angela, who has always succumbed to Dahlia's persuasiveness. Thanks to that, she's managed to put Dahlia & co back into a position of power when it seemed like they'd lost all leverage. Dahlia was really clutching at straws in telling Henry about Heather & Harry's relationship. At this stage of the game, I doubt it makes a difference; Dahlia is still public enemy #1 for Alchemilla, and Henry would have voted smart regardless.
However, now that Heather has changed the game entirely, things'll be quite different, with Heather likely being in the best position. Her mistake worked out in her favour, so long as Mary keeps to her word. Henry will probably reluctantly team up with Heather, Harry and Mary until the merger, giving them a nice majority advantage. Alex will be in cahoots with Henry, will otherwise be on the outside. I can actually see him becoming quite the sly player, using Henry's possible animosity towards the Heather/Harry relationship to his advantage - gaining valuable information about their voting plans, and relaying them to Dahlia. It's the only way that Alchemilla could possibly tip the balance out of Heather's favour and level the playing field again. Alex may not like working with the weaker people like Dahlia, but above all else he REALLY wants to win. I think that will overshadow everything else, and allow for the unthinkable: a secret alliance with Dahlia & Claudia.
Of course, if this doesn't happen, then Heather's only going to be strong until the merge, when it's likely that James will be king unless Mary or Maria get voted off along the way. That being said, Heather and Douglas did seem to know eachother beforehand, so if Douglas survives to the merge (and I think he will), then I can see him teaming up with Heather & Harry.
I think Vincent is currently in the worst position on either team, thanks to his miscalculation. Kaufmann dropped him in it, having nothing to lose at that point, and I think with it, Vincent's lost most of his ability to manipulate people. If anything, I see him striking an uneasy alliance with Elle and Eileen, since he can at least be charming and has so far always done them good, even if he was just using them as pawns in his schemes.
Angela is doomed. I don't think Angela could beat Walter or Kaufmann at anything, so really it comes down to whether the challenge is more mental or physical. If it's purely mental, Kaufmann has it, but if it's physical or a mix of both then Walter's still in the game. I really hope he survives and rejoins at the merger, with Dahlia & Claudia still about. I reckon they'll just love having a very strong loose cannon knocking around for them to try and fit into their schemes.
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Post by Fleck on Sept 11, 2011 17:38:44 GMT -8
Thanks for the write-up. I love when you guys do this sort of thing. It helps me get a better grasp of how other people view the characters. So far it seems like I'm doing pretty well. You guys are picking up on the things I want you to pick up on and your character assessments are pretty spot-on.
The next season of the real Survivor starts on Wednesday. It's looking like it will be a decent season, but none of the cast members really struck me as potentially awesome. But it's worth a look if any of you are interested in seeing what the real show is like and what I've done differently in SSH. I've taken a few liberties and I cut down considerably on the gossip and whining that often takes place in Survivor, but for the most part I think I've been pretty faithful.
Episodes of Survivor will be online as cbs.com. The internet will probably cock-block Count into oblivion, but that's what he gets for being British.
Thanks again for reading, you guys! Episode 6 is going nicely so far and I might be able to get parts 1 and 2 ready in time for Friday, so there might be another double update! Continue holding on to your butts!
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Sept 18, 2011 4:03:41 GMT -8
Damn, Brookhaven really are taking a hammering! When they're losing a round that they really should have won, thanks to some decent bowlers, Cybil on guns, and puzzles, you know they're in trouble. Although without Kaufmann, they lost one of their strongest thinkers, which may have cost them this round. Interestingly, Alchemilla may now have the advantage in all regards now, with Dahlia and Claudia having more combined puzzle-solving skills than Brookhaven, who is now left only with Vincent. Vincent can hold his own against Dahlia when it comes to riddles, which considering that Dahlia speaks in riddles, is quite impressive. She probably sees them as plainly written English. I don't know what Cybil's plan is, but right now Vincent's in a reasonable position if only because he's probably the most intelligent individual in the game, and not totally useless physically. He's a stronger player than Dahlia when it comes to tasks, but only marginally, thanks to his ability to be of somewhat more use in a physical round.
I really can't say who's next on the chopping block for Brookhaven. It depends on whether they want to vote to break up alliances, or vote to try and win games. They're running out of dead weight now, but I'd say the weakest is probably Elle. Brookhaven's been left with a lot of well-rounded people, and I'm just not sure that Elle is quite as strong as others in the team who do it better. She's not bad, just... unremarkable. I'd rate the general usefulness of the players in Brookhaven as follows:
Cybil > James > Vincent > Eileen/Maria > Douglas > Elle
Maria is a stronger player than Eileen in due to her unexpected cunning when it comes to staying in the game, but when it comes to tasks they seem kinda equal.
Douglas is perhaps the weakest in general thanks to his leg, but he has a niche role in that he's probably the strongest guy left in Brookhaven. If a task requires only pure muscle power, he's probably second only to Alex overall, but otherwise he falls short. However, he has a knack for winning over allies with his good nature, so I doubt he's in any immediate danger.
Brookhaven are probably regretting getting rid of Walter. I think he would have dominated that individual immunity challenge and won the reward for Brookhaven, and he would be a massive help against the new enemies they have to face after each challenge.
Right now my money's on James to win the whole thing. He's pretty strong in challenges, he's friendly and can get along with anyone, he isn't overly opinionated and he may well end up with 2 immediate allies right after the merge, as I mentioned before.
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Post by Bob on Sept 18, 2011 9:09:22 GMT -8
I'm not counting out the Masons. Harry knows Cybil, Heather knows Douglas, and all of them are in a decent position (thought not great) to make it to the merge, which could mean a four-person alliance. Plus, things are getting increasingly worse for Brookhaven as they keep losing tasks, so James might lose Maria and be alone in everything.
BTW, Fleck, that challenge WAS odd, but I loved that Eileen is a good bowler. And I enjoyed the specific references to the puzzles they were solving. Really gives Harry/James/Heather/Henry/Alex a benefit if they get the right puzzle. I think part of the reason Alchemilla is doing so well is that of all the all-rounders (aka main characters), 4/5 are on Alchemilla (formerly 5/6). There's definite strength in being the team of main characters or even main villains versus Brookhaven, which has the side characters plus James (and formerly Walter).
For this elimination, I have NO idea who'll be going. It'll be interesting. Brookhaven seems to be trying to unify so that they can start winning. I'd say their best bet at this point would be getting rid of a weak player, and I agree with Count that that would be Elle. At least Eileen can bowl! But breaking up any of the stronger alliances would cause turmoil (Cybil/Douglas and James/Maria) and Vincent is a strong player they shouldn't get rid of yet. So it's down to the wimpy girl alliance. They're dead weight, and it's probably time for 'em to go so that they can start winning challenges. Brookhaven definitely needs to think short-term right now and not worry about the end game. They need to start friggin winning!
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Post by Fleck on Sept 18, 2011 18:37:17 GMT -8
Yay comments!
You guys are getting pretty good at this stuff, and your assessments are so accurate that I'm starting to wonder if you guys are reading my notes.
*looks over shoulder. Checks for hidden camera*
Honestly, this challenge was a shock to me. Brookhaven had every single statistical advantage possible. I might as well have designed the task to their abilities and somehow they still lost. What can I say? The dice hate Brookhaven. Stupid biased dice!
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Post by Fleck on Sept 18, 2011 23:47:37 GMT -8
I just had THE BEST SSH writing session I've ever had. I started at about 9PM and I've been writing nonstop until just now, at 2:46AM. I just wrote almost 7,000 words in a single night. I really enjoyed Ep6 Part 3 so far (there's still a little bit more to do), and I hope you guys like it to. Hold on to your butts for this next part, it's a doozy.
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Sept 19, 2011 2:10:43 GMT -8
We're starting to think like Survivor players! And it's your fault, Fleck. All your fault.
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Post by Fleck on Sept 23, 2011 21:02:54 GMT -8
ARGHAGVDYUWBJK LDWK SSH IS NOW GO GO GO GO NOW GO GO RUN HURRY!
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Post by countlieberkuhn on Sept 25, 2011 3:06:50 GMT -8
Good stuff, Fleck! I guess me and Bob were right about Elle being next on the block, but you threw a nice curveball in there that made me think it might be Eileen going out. Maria's ability to debate was surprisingly good, I can see why she's considered a threat. Vincent did very well, as expected. He managed to root out the weak and control the debate without seeming like an arsehole who is trying to keep himself out of the firing line. He managed to bring out Elle & Eileen's most competitive sides, and that resulted in them proving once and for all who has what it takes to stay. Eileen's determination will likely have made an impact on the others, too. She wants to win, and she's a team player.
With Brookhaven's newfound solidarity in conjunction with getting rid of their dead weight, they're in at their best chance at victory in a task since losing Walter.
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Post by Bob on Sept 25, 2011 17:59:46 GMT -8
Episode 6 Results (SPOILERS, of course):
Alchemilla:
Favorites: Heather is still up here, though Harry is kinda dropping through no fault of his own. He was a bit stubborn this episode, but I'm okay with it. Henry, however, is rising my ranks. I'm really liking Henry and his "go with it" attitude. He's not openly mean to anybody, including Dahlia, which is nice (nice guys ftw!). Dahlia still intrigues me. Alex is turning into a dislike for me. He never made my list of likes, but now he's falling from neutral to dislike...almost. He's just becoming a tough brute almost.
Strong Players: Same as before.
Targets: Dahlia. That's really it. At this point, I think Dahlia and Claudia can only hope to win challenges to stay in this until the merge. They could try to manipulate others, but most seem unmanipulatable. I'd say if anything, Dahlia might be able to sway Alex into thinking it's time to think ahead to the merge and start knocking out his competition. She MIGHT be able to do this, but I think her "convert Mary" idea should be put to rest. But damn, if she DOES convert Alex, he'll probably bring Henry with him and Heather/Harry are on the chopping block. Harry would probably be out first since he has a direct connection with Dahlia.
Next Out: This group might have some hardships still, but I don't think A+3H will divide, which means Dahlia and Claudia are screwed if the teams don't merge soon. There only chance would be to toss Mary under the bus, and seeing how good Dahlia is at that, I'm not throwing out the possibility. But I think if Alchemilla loses, Dahlia and Claudia are boned unless Alex somehow screws up the unity of A+3H. Next out = Dahlia....but Harry might be in trouble if Dahlia snakes her way around this elimination (if they lose).
Brookhaven:
Favorites: Douglas, Maria, Eileen, James, Vincent. Douglas is still my favorite to win it all. I doubt he will, but I'm so on Team Douglas. HOWEVER, I think if there's any pair of people I like in Brookhaven, it's Maria+James. They're stepping into the spotlight a tad now and I'm really liking them. Mostly Maria, but James is fun in his dopey way. Eileen amuses me, too. The exchange with Vincent over tantamount was great. I liked both of them more with that exchange.
Strong Players: Douglas, Cybil, Vincent. Nothing new, really, except that they have fewer weak players. Come on Brookhaven! You can do it!
Targets: Cybil and Vincent. If Brookhaven wins the next one, I think AFTER that their whole "come together and vote the weakest" idea is going to be traded for "merge is coming, fuck the best players!" If that comes, These two are boned.
Next Out: Cybil. I think she's setting herself up for disaster, but we'll see. She was a big founder of the "find the real weakest" idea and she's taking leadership. If they continue to suck and lose, I think a HUGE portion of blame will fall on her and she'll be busted. If they DO win the next challenge, then she might be okay, at which point I'd say Eileen is probably next to go as the next weakest (unless it's a beer pong poker challenge!!!).
Comment to author: Keep 'em comin'! Also, just to note, but I'm thinking that the drama is almost over on Alchemilla, so I'm hoping the merge comes sooner than later. I don't think Dahlia/Claudia have the slightest chance right now if they lose. Brookhaven could still be interesting, though also sad. Anyway, just my two cents. I don't doubt that they'll be good episodes regardless of when the merge happens.
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Post by Fleck on Sept 25, 2011 21:07:34 GMT -8
Count: Much as I'd like to take credit for that misdirection/curve ball, the whole thing was a bit of a surprise to me as well. The only thing I knew going into Part 3 was that Cybil's idea was to have a meeting to talk about who they should vote for. Everything within that conversation happened fluidly, off the top of my head. The race was determined by stats and dice rolls and was a much closer finish than I indicated (when I wrote the results, I made sure Elle lost by a wide margin because I didn't want there to be any question that she lost).
Bob: Alchemilla is largely stagnating because they keep winning, but I had a good idea of what would happen in their group if they'd lost the challenge, and let's just say there's still some surprises left in that cult. We are officially in "the merge can happen any day now" territory, so that's going to start influencing decisions.
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