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Post by Bob on Oct 27, 2013 9:56:27 GMT -8
Thanks. I won't argue with that. I enjoyed writing that one.
Also wondering who caught the strange reference to buying things in the item shop? The part about the love letter to Gippal. Not sure if anybody is as obsessed/crazy about FF6 to get what that one means.
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Post by Fleck on Oct 27, 2013 12:53:34 GMT -8
Does it have to do with Cyan sending that chick love letters and flowers from the mountain? If not, then I have no idea.
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Post by Bob on Oct 27, 2013 15:13:31 GMT -8
No, good guess though. It's the part in Mobliz (city on the Veldt) where you can read letters to the wounded soldier and if you read him several of them, he'll give you a Tintinabar. My sister and I could NOT for the life of us figure out how to make letters appear. We thought it involved sleeping, which we did in the Relic shop. Turns out, it refreshes a new letter every time you talk to a shop owner. So, apparently, we thought it involved sleeping because we must've occasionally talked to the Relic shop guy.
Pointless trivia for the day!
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Post by Bob on Nov 1, 2013 20:59:15 GMT -8
Update for tomorrow will be slow. Working in the morning and still have some formatting to do, but will get it up as soon as I can tomorrow.
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Post by Dale on Nov 9, 2013 15:06:52 GMT -8
Yeah, I'm sorry, Bob. But I don't know how you can start this season off with such a good string of seven strong episodes, move into an okay, but not really great, eighth episode, and then almost completely shoot it in the foot in the ninth. This elimination certainly opens the race right up, but it also makes it less interesting because the eliminated team deserved to make it to the F3 way more than most of the others who likely will.
Yet another lose-lose bottom two, but of the two, I'd rather have lost the team we did, because this board would be getting VERY ugly if the opposite had happened.
Anyway, here are my rankings for episode nine:
1. Laguna & Ellone: Well, with the latest ouster, they move up to the top. Not only through being my favorite team from a personality perspective, but also from a racing perspective. I mean, if Fleck in particular is reading this, hear me out. They started out in such a weak position -- way behind, zero equalizer to run into, and victims of the second U-Turn of a Double U-Turn, and stuck fighting it out with the biggest threats of the race . . . and yet, they still survive?! This leg was totally, completely rough on them and unfair to them, but they still pulled through! These two have got some stuff! They came into the race as clear underdogs, yet are showing more and more that they are a dark horse team to be reckoned with! In the absence of several better teams, and with Cid & Brother and Snow & Lightning obviously primed to go after each other on the next leg (if the teams are as smart as they claim to be), Laguna & Ellone will float right to the top and probably make the F3 after already making the F4. And if they do, with everyone counting them out, they could probably surprise everyone and win. So good luck to them!
2. Snow & Lightning: They rise to second place on this leg, though this is kind of a reluctant placement. The main reason they're up here is that they are getting better, but it's really because other, stronger teams have either done worse or gotten eliminated. And with the big alliance finally blown up and their big threats out, I think they're better-positioned to make the F3. Winning would be a different story, since I don't see either doing well with a memory-based task. So I have them in second place.
3. Scarlet & Heidegger: I'm not really gonna say much about them or why I'm leaving them in third place since I said most of it after leg eight. They're not threats to the "big teams" (Snow & Lightning and Cid & Brother), so they won't be targeted. They'll have no target on their backs as long as they stay ahead of the curve and don't fall behind to the point where a team will have to U-Turn them just to stay in the game. With no one seeing them as threats (even though, to a great extent, they actually are more than the other teams realize), they'll coast to the F3 if there's no mishap. But I think the karma of what they've done throughout the race will come back to bite them, and they'll fall of things on the final leg in third place.
4. Cid & Brother: This leg was a little more impressively-run by them, but I'm still torn on how much credit to give them, since a large part of it was only because they had no equalizer and managed to keep their lead mainly because of that. But really, I'm hesitant to put them in the F3 because not U-Turning either of their threats in Snow & Lightning or Yang & Ursula kinda showed me on this leg that they don't have any real strategy. I thought they did, but they don't. Snow & Lightning are plenty strategic and will likely use Cid & Brother's lack of strategy against them to get them targeted and put out of the race on the next leg. So I think they're falling out of this race in fourth place, assuming Snow & Lightning think smart and go after them. I hope so, because this kind of makes their alliance blowing up meaningless unless another blow is struck.
5. Yang & Ursula -- Eliminated on Leg 9: It is such a shame to seem them go on this leg, but really, with this leg being full of things unfamiliar to them, combined with Snow & Lightning's killer U-Turn, they had no chance. I am actually really angry that they had to go this way, because at least three mediocre-to-average teams (Cid & Brother, Scarlet & Heidegger, and Snow & Lightning) have officially outlasted them. Only Laguna & Ellone have really impressed me in any mind-blowing way out of this F4, so I'm hoping, with them gone, that they'll at least make the F3, if not take the whole thing.
6. Kefka & Terra -- Eliminated on Leg 8
7. Fang & Vanille -- Eliminated on Leg 7
8. Gabranth & Basch -- Eliminated on Leg 5
9. Edea & Seifer -- Eliminated on Leg 4
10. Zidane & Vivi -- Eliminated on Leg 3
11. Kuja & Seymour -- Eliminated on Leg 2
12. Galuf & Krile -- Eliminated on Leg 1
But these are just my rankings. How about everyone else's?
Also, Bob, there'd better be an equalizer on the next leg, because having a U-Turn on a leg without one made this leg seem totally, completely unfair. I don't want the next one to be, too.
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Post by Fleck on Nov 10, 2013 1:17:54 GMT -8
So now Yang/Ursula are gone. I've got kind of mixed feelings about this, because now the obvious #1 spot is up for grabs, which is good because it means the last two episodes are going to be that much less predictable. But on the other hand, making my predictions is now something of a crapshoot. Anyway, here's my guesses.
1 = Snow/Lightning Rocketing back up to first place for no real reason are Snow/Lightning. These two have been climbing the ranks, not because they're getting better, but because the teams that are better than them are systematically being eliminated. They were a middle of the road team for most of the race, but since all the frontrunners are gone, the middle is the new front. Do I think they deserve it? Eh. Maybe? They do seem to have a variety of skills that can be applied to a number of situations, but they're weak in most other areas. They're a great team on paper, but their actual execution is sloppy and disappointing. Still, I feel more comfortable placing them at the top than any of their competitors.
2 = Laguna/Ellone Don't worry, Dale, I do read your picks and I am willing to hear you out, but I've got a larger point that I'm going to expound on in the Scarlet/Heidegger section. Basically, the only way I see these two winning the whole thing is if several things happen. First, there must be another U-Turn next leg. Second, Snow/Lightning have to be U-Turned and eliminated. Third, the final leg MUST NOT be overly technical or overly dependent on navigation. If and only if all these requirements are met, then I'd say Laguna/Ellone have a shot. But I think that's too many if's and maybe's for me to think they're the best of the remaining four. At this point, I'm only putting them in second for their dark horse nature and their surprising consistency. I think Bob has been very forgiving of these two (I think they should have gotten lost and eliminated many legs ago), so I wouldn't be surprised to see these two in the finals. But I WOULD be surprised to see them win.
3 = Cid/Brother FFX teams have a tendency to be really, really good in one particular area. Biran/Yenke could destroy any physical task. Tidus/Wakka could annihilate all water-based challenges. Jecht/Auron could... umm... be really evil? The first season of AFFR tends to be the exception to many rules. Anyway, Cid/Brother have basically proven themselves to be superhumanly good with machines, to the point where including machina of any kind in a leg basically guarantees that Cid and Brother will do well. If there's no catch-up point in the next leg, then Cid/Brother can basically coast to the finals. But if there is a catch-up point, Cid/Brother are going to have to hope for some machine-based tasks and some luck to keep going. But so far they've been drowning in machines and good fortune, so there's not much reason to expect any different next leg.
4 = Scarlet/Heidegger Here's the larger point I mentioned in my Ellone/Laguna section. AFFR4 has been INCREDIBLY unfair towards teams that don't have a strong background in machines. A huge number of detours and roadblocks have been entirely dependent on one or both racers in each team--not only being familiar with machines--but being adept at machinery. Teams that come from more medieval worlds are being crushed, and now literally we're left with nothing but the most mechanically able four teams remaining. So, while it is impressive that Laguna/Ellone caught up to reigning badasses Yang/Ursula and completed a double U-Turn, you have to consider the counterpoint: Yang and Ursula DID NOT know what a helicopter even was. The fact that they took a ratty and incomplete instruction manual and worked out everything from there is a testament to their strengths, and their loss doesn't really say anything about Laguna/Ellone. Yes, L/E did a hell of a catch-up job, but Laguna is skilled with machine guns and while Ellone isn't much of a pilot, she's at least familiar with the idea of helicopters. The challenge was unfair from the beginning.
Which brings me to Scarlet/Heidegger. It's precisely because of the heavy machine-based nature of AFFR4 that these two are still in the race. Aside from a few random skills and utterly pointless abilities, S/H are basically ONLY good at machines. Granted, they are really, really good at machines, but that's beside the point. They're the least well-rounded of the four, and have only made it this far in the race due to a combination of other team's failures and the fact that the race has catered to their sole defining trait. But now we reach the end, and all four remaining teams have a high degree of mechanical aptitude. S/H no longer have a significant advantage over anyone, and this is the point where I expect them to FINALLY.... FINALLY fall out of this race. I still don't dislike them, but c'mon. "Gyahahaha... We're only good at piloting and guns!... Oh look, a challenge based entirely around piloting and guns!" This race has been handed to these two on a silver platter and I'd like them to lose now.
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Post by Bob on Nov 10, 2013 9:53:08 GMT -8
I don't know if I'd say that all of AFFR4 has been heavily machine-based. There has been a lot of machine-based travel (airships and the like), but really, I think the machine-based tasks have been limited toward the last two legs. I can only think of the following as possible machine-based killers in AFFR4: 1. Airships in FF3 (did a number on Gabranth and Basch), 2. Invention Intersection (gave a big advantage to technical teams), and 3. Fly Up Detour (eliminated Yang and Ursula single-handedly).
I agree that Yang and Ursula basically got the shaft here, but for Scarlet and Heidegger, I dunno. I think they're surviving the late-game from machine-based tasks, but they survived on their own in the beginning. That and the fact that nobody in the race views them as a threat at all. But really, Yang and Ursula had a niche, too, for physical tasks, which the race had a lot of, but most of those were early in the game. This race was structured more for a "start primitive and become developed" style, so Yang and Ursula just kinda ran into their barrier.
From a non-story perspective, I'll give some race insight that might surprise and interest you (or maybe not, but still...). I was almost positive that LE would go last leg. They were SUPER screwed. They started the race waaaay behind, then Laguna did TERRIBLY at the Roadblock. Like, imagine the worst you could ever do? He did that.
But on the Fly Up Detour, Yang and Ursula had the worst luck imaginable. Worse than Laguna at the Roadblock times like, a million. There was a 10% chance that ANY of the teams would crash their ships. Granted, it was 10% per round, where a successful flight was often about six rounds (Cid and Brother had the longest chain of rounds: 10), which puts things closer to a 53% chance of not crashing.
I had a bonus for piloting that was never used by CB nor SH (they had the bonus, but it only kicked in if the plane would potentially crash--basically, they had a D&D style "chance to save"). There was a gunner bonus, too, that helped them kill monsters faster (meaning fewer rounds), which gave LE a slight advantage, but it really didn't help them much (basically 10% higher chance to not miss their target).
So all of this is to say: Yang and Ursula got the random-number-generator shaft. They crashed six times, the odds of which are lower than 1%. I'm okay with it because it makes total sense in context, but I'm sad to see them go. They were the Ma and Zell of the season--a team with a somewhat unknown character that I expected to go early but turned out to be extremely good racers and pretty darn entertaining. Most of the time, I design a Detour to have options for different types of teams, this being no exception. I knew technical skills would limit some teams, so the Blow Up option existed. I do the same for overly-physical challenges and sometimes mental, too. But U-Turns kinda throw all of that balance out the window.
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Post by Fleck on Nov 10, 2013 13:42:29 GMT -8
I'm not accusing you of playing favorites or anything, Bob, and I am KINDA talking out of my ass here, since I only have foggy memories of the beginning of this season (so long ago...). But here's, I guess, my counter-counter argument.
It's not only that machine-based tasks are eliminating teams, they're providing unfair bonuses for teams as well. Yes, the detour that took out Yang/Ursula had a non-technical bomb side that they could (and did) do instead. But they didn't get a bonus from it. Teams with mechanical aptitude basically got a +1 bonus for doing the helicopter one while all other teams had to settle for mediocrity. Obviously there have been tasks in the past that favored physicality or some other trait and I don't remember enough about the beginning of the season to know if they're relatively balanced or not, but it seems like it's better to have a mechanical background. Having skill with machines seems to be saving a lot of average and below-average teams. "Well, I'm not strong, but I can still pilot this thing" or whatever, which seems to make them have an advantage.
I guess my biggest thing is that all the mechanically inept teams have now been eliminated. If we lined up all the teams on two sides, one side is the "good with machines" side and one is the "bad with machines" side, I'd say all four remaining teams are on the "good" side. To me, it's like having a final four composed entirely of Biran/Yenke teams, only instead of being heavily physical, they're heavily mechanical.
Anyway, I was just talking trash. I didn't know you bothered to read these predictions while the race was still going. AND you shouldn't be reading them! Our uninformed opinions might bias yours! GET OUT OF OUR THREAD!
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Post by Bob on Nov 10, 2013 14:43:55 GMT -8
I know you aren't accusing me of anything, I'm just giving my perspective. I planned out the locations right at the beginning (though I had to tweak it a bit since Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days was on the route, but it and my DS were stolen and I couldn't play through the game as intended). This season was planned to be a "start primitive, end technologically advanced" season, with a few ups and downs based on worlds that I thought connected well or not. So I think that's kind of what happened. The technologically advanced teams all had enough skill/luck/alliance to carry them to the end, and then the tech stuff became more prominent and left all the techy racers. But yeah, part of this is intentional because I believe the race is kind of like any reality show, where the winners are the best in several areas, basically. Let's say American Idol, because that's a thing I've watched a couple seasons of. They'll have different themes for each week and even though one singer is the best you've ever heard, he/she might not win because they can't sing country for crap and they got eliminated during country week. Kinda the same here, for me. If you can't use technology, then you need to make sure somebody that sucks more than you comes in last on that leg. Anywho, I also just kinda wanted an excuse to point out how terrible Yang/Ursula's luck was. They had no disadvantage, but the numbers hated them, just the opposite of last leg (8) when the numbers loved all people doing the firefly task. Cid and Brother hit that 5% chance first try. Lucky jerks! Yeah, yeah, bias bias bias. If I weren't using random numbers like I do, then I'd avoid the thread until all was written, but...meh, I have little say in how things go, except for maybe their delay and Fast Forward decisions.
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Post by Fleck on Mar 2, 2014 3:10:09 GMT -8
Wow. Can you believe that this thread was originally opened on May 27th, 2012? That doesn't seem too long ago, but I keep forgetting that it's 2014 already! Two years! And now we finally see the end. The end of the Original Cast seasons! Nothing left but two returning cast season (unless Bob wants to do a season 7?).
Anyway, despite some of our nay-sayers, I enjoyed this season. I'm glad Scarlett/Heidegger got to be the "so far in third they aren't even worth mentioning" team. I'm glad Snow/Lightning finally pulled their heads out of their asses and put together a good (but not good enough) leg. And hell, I'm glad that FFX world finally gets to stop being the bridesmaids and finally has one of their own take the finals. FFX continues to be the beasts of AFFR. My only question though, is what WAS the secret behind the final sphere memory challenge? It can't have been anything to do with roadblocks, because as Lightning pointed out, it's nearly impossible to know who did what roadblock on every leg.
I'll have more to say later. Perhaps tomorrow. And by "tomorrow," I mean, "after I go to sleep and wake up."
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Post by Bob on Mar 2, 2014 8:16:26 GMT -8
It was as Snow/Lightning figured out--the person that did the Roadblock on the leg they were eliminated. It wasn't possible to know them all, but if teams knew the eliminated team, then it became a 50/50 shot, and putting the wrong sphere only caused a short delay. So it might've been nearly impossible to know who did 'em all, but it was very possible to put every sphere as a 50/50 shot. The idea was originally to have it open for all 9 questions to be in the same area with a giant pile of spheres, but the odds would've been insane for teams that were guessing (potentially 1/512, though more realistically 64). But by chunking it into groups, it lowered those odds to reasonable figures. That, and Bevelle has such a weird cloister that it would've been awkward.
If it wasn't obvious, I'm trying to hit all cloisters before the series wraps up, and now that job is basically done. Still have the Besaid Cloister, but that one is the training cloister (put the only sphere in the only hole), so I don't even plan to use it. So...hooray! Mission basically complete!
Glad you enjoyed the season. Definitely one of my favorites. I think it had the best start of all seasons and I like how it ended. I think a couple teams that should've won were eliminated, but that's just how it goes. Speaking of that, it's probably time to post up the AFFR All-Stars vote! Whee!
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