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Post by Bob on Jul 10, 2007 9:48:03 GMT -8
I gotta do it. Let's poll! Who do you think will win?
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 10, 2007 19:18:25 GMT -8
THANK GOD A POST!! About freakin' time I say, this forum is pretty much dead, plus Bob, I'm pretty sure most people would just vote for whomever is their favorite team, though all three are pretty much the "I wouldn't mind if they win, but I'm not exactly rooting for them" in my book, so it may take a bit of time to decide who I'm voting for, and also, don't let his poll decide who is gonna win the one million pills, I mean gil.
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 10, 2007 20:01:53 GMT -8
Okay, I've decided, under normal circumstances, I'd have chosen Shinra and Rufus, they aren't a bad combination, and stood the test of time so far, and out of the remaining teams, they have the most secure statistics, Amarant and Lani have terrible aggresion problems and they only have decent teamwok in dire situations, and Yuna and Rikku are terrible navigators and are gullible though they have incredible teamwork and a good attitude. Though Since Rufus and Shinra did well in the first part, they had bad luck and got stuck with bad teamates, I would expect Shinra and Rufus to barely land second. Amarant and Lani, like I said, only good teamwork when they really need it, though they have a good style and are formidable racers, if the other final racers were different, I would expect them to get a close second, though against Shinra and Rufus, things even out, though normally they upstage Yuna and Rikku, in the current circumstances, it seems to be a pretty even out match between the three. I would expect them to barely land second, or close third. Yuna and Rikku are the main stream choice, nobody thought much of them in the beginning but they have made themselves known, they have good teamwork, but that's about it, they have truly astounding luck to make it this far, and that luck lasted long enough to barely land first, or a close second.
But this is probably confusing, I have said all close seconds, basically, think of it like this, just using random numbers to show how evenly matched they are, and high numbers represent closer to first place and vice versa, it would be like, Yuna/Rikku = 22-27, Shinra/Rufus = 21-25, Amarant/Lani = 20-24, it works on luck, like if everyone got the highest, Y/R being 27, S/R being 25 and A/L being 24, then it would be Y/R in first, followed by S/R closely followed by A/L, but if it were randomized, as it will be, then if A/L were to do as well as possible, and Y/R strike out, then there is a small chance of A/L being victorious. Now, these numbers aren't based off my opinions, I'm rooting for them all as equally as possible, but there is a lot of variables too. Based off place value, the bonus teamates, add 11 to A/L, 9 to S/R, and a pitiful 5 to Y/R, so it becomes Yuna/Rikku = 25-32, Shinra/Rufus = 30-34, Amarant/Lani = 31-35, giving Amarant and Lani an edge, but add the bonus teamates abilities to it, Jecht has skill though isn't too bright, making for a -1, Squall is smart but has little motivation, +1, Paine has her teamwork, +2, Relm has her eagerness to please Rufus due to a crush, so +1, Edgar is strong and talented, so +1, and Rinoa is highly motivated to beat Squall and is pretty smart, so +2. This makes it Yuna/Rikku = 28-35, Shinra/Rufus = 32-36, Amarant/Lani = 32-36, this makes it Evenly matched between S/R, and A/L, and if they make small mistakes, and Y/R continues their streak of good luck, then Y/R can stil win, but they have a good chance of losing, combine their positions at the end of Part 1, and you get Yuna/Rikku = 29-36, Shinra/Rufus = 35-39, Amarant/Lani = 34-38, ggiving S/R the edge, and it gives S/R and A/L more room for mistakes against Y/R. Finally, Statistically, you have Shinra and Rufus in a close first, quickly followed by Amarant and Lani and then Yuna and Rikku will drag a few minutes behind, maybe more, though obviously there is still the actual race to consider, so you never know! ;D
By the way, the reason Yuna and Rikku have such a big range is that their perfromance is usually based off of luck, usually good luck, so their performance is actually stretched both ways, to show that attribute. Without luck, they would probably have a 21-24 at start. Also, place values are the level they were eliminated on plus the other racer's elimination episode number. (Jecht is +8, he was eliminated at the end of Episode 8.)
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Post by Fleck on Jul 11, 2007 13:09:11 GMT -8
Contrary to Nobodyspecial's prediction, I didn't vote for my favorite team. I will not be disappointed/surprised at the end, no matter who wins. Y/R are insanely lucky, A/L have skills (and are in their world), and S/R are smart and ruthless, so really it could be anyone.
I could sit here and logic out who should win, based on skill, intelligence, teamwork, ruthlessness, etc. But as this race has proven, actual talent and skill are more of bonuses. Luck and random chance are the only important factors here, and you can't really measure or predict those.
So, in the spirit of the random luck that has been dictating the race so far, I randomly chose my answer. I vote for Amarant/Lani.
Just because.
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 11, 2007 15:31:17 GMT -8
True, S/R does stand for Smart and Ruthless. No really, I agree slightly, but only in the sense that there is not telling who will win, my prediction was more "Statistically, this person should win". By the way, I don't think Shinra and Rufus have enough motivation to win, statistically they could but, well, what is their motivation exactly? They practically own their world, they have more money than they know what to do with, and then some, so why would they want a million gil?
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Jul 11, 2007 18:56:02 GMT -8
Ze thrill of ze competition man! The thrill! Thou must be knowing this! Shinra and Rufus play to win the game!
That said, I'm still not sure who'll win, but I do agree that Shinra and Rufus and Amarant and Lani have really good additional teammates, while the SYRUP team isn't quite as strong...but when has that stopped them before?
Hmm...now to make a vote...?
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 11, 2007 21:53:15 GMT -8
wow, four hours in order to come up with a vote, you have either put a lot of thought into it, or you're just really distracted.
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Post by lucavi on Jul 12, 2007 16:56:50 GMT -8
muahahahaha had to do it....it was to tempting to just make them all even.
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 12, 2007 21:03:04 GMT -8
Happy belated b-day, it was only about 2 days short of a month ago
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 12, 2007 21:04:34 GMT -8
Bob, Wyvern, you guys need to vote, you still haven't and its even thanks to lucavi...
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Jul 13, 2007 5:23:42 GMT -8
As it turns out, my vote for Lani and Amarant edged out my vote for Shinra and Rufus for one reason and one reason only: the 'revelation' that Lani may be enamored with Amarant. This gives her bonus incentive to pull through for him. Amarant is like an unstoppable tank who'll just keep plowing ahead, so he isn't likely to get distracted by something like that until the task at hand is done, and with a good supporting cast (though slightly less strong than the Shinras), I can see them pulling it out.
Nevertheless, if I could vote for two, I'd vote for Shinra and Rufus also---they're totally badass, have a great support team, great teamwork, and an unstoppable drive.
Team SYRUP's got luck, sure, they've got 3/4 companionship, sure, and they've got speed, but their overall ability is not as strong. If Squall stepped up to the plate and led them in something...like navigation or one of their many other failings, they could easily pull it off as well.
Needless to say, it's an incredibly tough and incredibly close race. I can't wait (but since I'm gonna be away from internet access, I guess I'll have to) for the next part.
So yeah---I'm soon to be in NC (as of tomorrow) until the 22nd, so I may not be so readily available...
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 13, 2007 12:38:08 GMT -8
I doubt bob will vote, since he is writing it, though Dale may require a bit of time, he hasn't been on since the 1st. Well voted Wyvern, it could easily be a draw between S/R. and A/L
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Post by wyvernxk7 on Jul 13, 2007 20:39:36 GMT -8
Thanks. Hey, btw---I'ze trying to access TGP tonight (I'm currently in VA...on my way to NC) but it kept closing the window...why!?
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Post by Dale on Jul 13, 2007 23:56:00 GMT -8
By skill, as much as they're my least favorite of the final three teams, I think Amarant & Lani should win. Yuna & Rikku have the worst average placement, 4.3, entirely because of their early low finishes. (Add up their finishes shown on the leaderboard and divide them by ten, for the number of completed legs, and you'll see what I mean.) Shinra & Rufus fall just below Amarant & Lani with an average of 3.4 (BIG gap between them and Yuna & Rikku). They were tied with Amarant & Lani, in terms of average placement, until their last-place finish in episode ten. Now, Amarant & Lani have the best average of 3.3. Thus, they're the best team in the final three right now. However, the best team in the final three almost never wins. Watch the eighth (Family Edition) and tenth seasons of the real show if you want to see the times when the best team in the final three does win. However, finding out that Lani really does have a crush on Amarant could make for an interesting finish, too. Doesn't mean I want them to win, because I don't, but it makes things more interesting.
But going on a more feel-good ending, I love the underdog team winning, so I'm banking on a Yuna & Rikku win. They've gone through the ultimate underdog story -- started out as a team that could've easily been eliminated early, but fought hard through practically everything and grew stronger as a team. They deservedly made it to the final three. I do not agree with Fleck that they've been lucky. They do have some skill and have gotten this far using it. Plus, they have more wins under their belt than the other two teams -- they won three legs, Amarant & Lani won only one, and Shinra & Rufus have never even won a single leg! In addition, they've displayed the best teamwork and a better dynamic than Shinra & Rufus and Amarant & Lani. Plus, they rock out their tasks better than anyone else has in the race (except that damn Cross Detour -- EIGHTEEN ATTEMPTS?!). Yeah, their navigation is bad, and if it flares up in the finale, they could finish in only second or third, but I doubt it.
Shinra & Rufus would be fine with me, as well, since they're part of Yuna & Rikku's alliance, and they're the one team that's had the perfect balance of luck and skill. But everything that Bob's written so far is somehow telling me that things are pointing to them losing. I could be wrong, but we'll see.
Well, these are my thoughts. Make of them what you will.
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Post by nobodyspecial on Jul 14, 2007 2:07:40 GMT -8
Pretty good point of view, though Yuna and Rikku aren't eactly quite as you pictured it, look, when some teams bicker and waste time before tasks, for them its get n' go, they do everything (most everything) without question and just plow through, and their friendly nature won them the 10th leg, if they hadn't been nice to the chocobo and the man, then they would surely have lost, and in most all situations, their friendly nature is what allows them to pull through, so in my opinion, if they come across any situations where their personality and attitude is taken into account, then they probably will win, unless its like a frowning contest or some nonsense, and true, the Lani/Amarant thing may develop to a new level where in they can win by motive, then they could win, and Shinra and Rufus could win, though they aren't exactly reliable, they are almost more of a wildcard than Yuna and Rikku, but different is good, so I'm sticking to my S/R win pretty firmly.
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